Donald Trump’s irredeemable belief in tariffs and his erratic war with Iran are clear threats to the global economy. 

The US President’s use of an obscure clause of the notorious 1930 Smoot Hawley trade law to reimpose his Liberation Day tariffs against 60 trading partners is scary and could yield the US Treasury up to $260billion of income. 

The military campaign against Iran has caused oil prices to soar back beyond $100 a barrel. 

Europe is busy rebuilding its gas stocks ahead of the winter, sending wholesale prices up 50 per cent. 

Together, one would expect these global threats – combined with Britain’s foolhardy lack of gas storage – to cause conniptions at No10 North. 

After all, despite £75billion of new taxes since Labour took office in July 2024, Britain sits on a fiscal time bomb with the debt-to-output ratio scheduled to hover close to 100 per cent in every year until 2030. 

The nation’s interest rate bill is running at a forecast £135billion in this fiscal year alone. 

In addition, Britain’s military voices, bolstered by Charles Woodburn of BAE Systems, are making the case for higher defence spending and investment. Russian and Iranian threats have enabled the UK’s defence giants to become more outspoken advocates for an industry they argue was weakened by years of anti-war sentiment. 

In the context of the UK’s borrowing of £56.7billion in the first quarter of the 2026-27 fiscal year, Andy Burnham’s sprinklings of good cheer for winter fuel, bus passengers, pubs and music venues are small change. 

Even if unfunded, the bill could be contained, barring a new shock, within current headroom. 

The contrast between John Healey and Rachel Reeves’ arrival at the Treasury could not be greater. Healey is playing the optimism card, praising Britain’s innovation and industry.

Reeves arrived in office with a narrative of black holes – most of her own making – and a tedious, never-ending assault on former prime minister Liz Truss and the Tories. 

But despite everything thrown at the economy, the UK’s resilience remains intact. An exodus of wealth and entrepreneurs has taken a toll. Goods trade with Europe and the US is suffering. 

But the nation’s services sector is positively booming, with exports rising 7.8 per cent in 2025 to a record £203.8billion. 

It is finance, law, engineering, architecture, gaming and other creative activities that are keeping the nation solvent. Confidence is critical, something Reeves failed to grasp. 

One might be sceptical about Manchesterism, but it does offer an upbeat message. This is reinforced by economic data showing a jump in consumer confidence this month, a surprise 1pc jump in retail sales in June and a sharp jump in the S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers’ Index to a robust 52.1 from 49.3. 

It is early days for Burnham, but one should never underestimate the buoyancy of Britain’s flexible economic model in the face of global and fiscal challenges. 

Tax changes – such as the abolition of VAT on tourist purchases, an end to stamp duty on shares and on home purchases by first-time buyers – could haul Britain out of the Starmer and Reeves ditch