In recent weeks, diplomatic tensions between Ukraine and Hungary have escalated after Kyiv criticised Budapest's stance on EU accession negotiations and aid to Ukraine. The debate centres on minority rights and the European Union's financial and political decisions regarding Ukraine.

Recently, Hungary has indicated on several occasions that it will veto certain EU decisions, particularly the €90 billion in long-term financial assistance to be granted to Ukraine, as well as measures to accelerate the accession process. The Hungarian government claims that Kyiv is deliberately delaying the restart of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was damaged in a Russian drone attack at the end of January.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has ordered the army to protect the energy infrastructure, fearing Ukrainian military action that could put Hungary's oil supply at risk.

Orbán, who has been in power for 16 years, is trailing in the opinion polls, with his Fidesz party behind the Tisza Party. His policy centres on spreading fear and dividing the population. His 'war or peace' agenda helped him secure victory in the 2022 elections, and he is using it again. Over the years, extensive government propaganda has constantly told Hungarians who to fear and/or hate, particularly before elections. These 'enemies' have included George Soros, migrants, members of the LGBTQ+ community, multinational companies making 'extra profit', Muslims, NGOs, the liberal press, Brussels and the domestic opposition in general. The latest addition is Ukrainians, and the government's concern about potential Ukrainian military action against Hungarian infrastructure fits perfectly into this narrative.

Meanwhile, consultations on military, financial and energy support for Ukraine, as well as on maintaining sanctions against Russia, are ongoing in Brussels. The foreign ministers of the member states last reviewed the situation at a meeting of the European Union's Foreign Affairs Council. The European Commission's midday press briefing also received questions on Ukrainian-Hungarian relations and energy security.

At Wednesday's press conference, European Commission chief spokesperson Paula Pinho spoke about the latest meeting of the European Union's Foreign Affairs Council. She emphasised that the member states had clearly reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine. She said that foreign ministers had held a comprehensive discussion about the latest developments in the war, how to maintain support for Ukraine and how to further exert pressure on Russia. The spokesperson emphasised that

the Council meeting had sent a clear political message: the European Union's long-term support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In connection with Hungarian-Ukrainian relations, Paula Pinho recalled that the European Commission is in regular contact with both parties and encourages bilateral dialogue. She emphasised that professional consultations on minority rights and changes in Ukrainian legislation are ongoing, and that the European Commission's assessments are carried out in line with the EU's legal and political frameworks.

In response to the question of whether the Hungarian government's reservations could influence EU decisions on Ukraine, the spokesperson said:

Decisions are made in accordance with the procedures set out in the treaties, and consultations between member states form part of how the EU functions.

Regarding energy issues, spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said that the European Union is continuing to monitor the security of energy supplies in the region, paying particular attention to transit through Ukraine and reducing dependence on Russian energy sources. She added that the European Commission aims to diversify energy sources and strengthen supply routes to ensure a stable and predictable supply for member states, including those in Central Europe.

Itkonen said that the Commission is monitoring the situation regarding the Druzhba oil pipeline and is in contact with those affected. However, the EU executive body

does not yet have a precise technical timetable or a specific date for restoration.

While repairs are underway, the EU is seeking to guarantee security of supply through alternative routes and coordination. Ukraine has itself made a proposal to this effect: Kyiv is suggesting the alternative use of existing infrastructure. According to the logistics plan, crude oil would arrive by sea at ports, where it would be transshipped before being transported to EU member states via the Odessa-Brody pipeline.

The spokesperson emphasised that coordinating energy market measures remains a priority and that, in recent years, the European Commission has put forward a number of proposals aimed at strengthening energy security and reducing price volatility. They added that energy cooperation with Ukraine is not only a matter of solidarity, but also integral to the stability of the EU's energy system.

Anna-Kaisa Itkonen also mentioned that the European Union is working continuously on a roadmap for decoupling from Russian fossil fuels. This process involves close coordination with the EU's member states.

In response to the suggestion that certain countries, including Hungary, are in a unique position due to their energy dependence, he stated that the European Commission recognises national specificities and considers different starting points when formulating policies. The issue arose after Reuters reported on Tuesday evening that the European Commission may present a roadmap for a total ban on Russian oil imports three days after the Hungarian elections, on 15 April.

This step forms part of the RePowerEU plan, which was adopted at the end of January and aims to stop all Russian gas imports by 2027. Under the plan, the Commission expects member states that import Russian oil to submit their decoupling plans by 1 March. The Commission will then prepare a regulatory plan for an oil ban in spring.

Two EU officials told Reuters the timing was designed to prevent the oil ban becoming a major factor in Hungary's election campaign. Hungary and Slovakia, still reliant on Russian oil imports, are strongly opposed to any ban.

The EU has already imposed sanctions on imports of seaborne Russian oil. But it wants to enshrine a full phase-out of Russian oil in legislation that would remain in place, even if a peace deal in the Ukraine war led to the EU lifting sanctions.

The Commission plans to propose the Russian oil ban on April 15, according to a draft agenda seen by Reuters.Asked about the matter, a Commission spokesperson told Reuters the EU executive's agendas were provisional and that it did not have a confirmed timeline for submitting the proposal.

Orbán's government, which has maintained cordial ties with Moscow since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has vetoed new EU sanctions on Russia as well as a huge loan for Kyiv because of the Druzhba pipeline dispute.

The European Union is expected to circumvent any attempt by Hungary and Slovakia to block the planned permanent ban on Russian oil imports by using a law that can be approved by a qualified majority of member states.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has said the proposal will phase out Russian oil imports by no later than end-2027.

By the final quarter of last year, the EU was importing just 1% of its oil from Russia, largely as a result of the bloc's sanctions on seaborne Russian crude.

The EU last month fixed into law a full phase-out of Russian gas by late 2027. Hungary and Slovakia have vowed to challenge that law in court.

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images