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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAWarren Buffett's warning that "we've never had people in a more gambling mood than now" is going viral as investors weigh AI-driven stock gains against bubble fears.
A blunt 11-word warning from Warren Buffett, "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now," is going viral this week as investors grapple with conflicting signals over whether an AI-fueled stock rally has pushed the market into bubble territory.
The remark, made during a CNBC interview at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting earlier this year, has resurfaced as the Buffett indicator, a valuation gauge the investor made famous, sits at a record high above 233%. The renewed attention comes as U.S. investor sentiment splits sharply between optimism over artificial intelligence and growing unease over stretched valuations.
A market split on sentiment
Investors appear divided on what comes next. Around 45% of U.S. investors are optimistic about the market's next six months, according to a June 2026 survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, compared with 36% who are pessimistic and 19% who are neutral.
At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has remained firmly in "fear" territory for most of June, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average have all wobbled in recent weeks after a strong run earlier this year.
Buffett's church-and-casino analogy
Buffett has often described the stock market as a church with a casino attached, using the metaphor to distinguish long-term investors from those chasing short-term, speculative gains. His warning about a "gambling mood" was aimed squarely at the latter group, reflecting concern that more investors are gravitating toward risky, short-term bets rather than durable, fundamentals-driven holdings.
What the Buffett indicator shows
Buffett's namesake valuation metric, which measures the ratio of total U.S. stock market value to GDP, has surpassed 233%, its highest level on record. Buffett himself noted in a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine that investors are "playing with fire" once the ratio nears 200%. Before the dot-com bust in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis, the same measure stood at 146% and 137%, respectively, well below current levels.
AI optimism complicates the picture
Much of the current market strength has been tied to optimism that artificial intelligence will meaningfully boost business productivity, a dynamic some analysts have compared to expectations around the internet during the dot-com era.
A record 59.5% of S&P 500 analyst ratings were classified as "buy" as of the end of May, according to FactSet Insight, the highest share on record since 2010. Investment manager Tobias Carlisle cautioned that "estimates tend to be most wrong precisely when they're most extreme," noting that analysts' long-term earnings forecasts have historically proven unreliable at market peaks.
What history suggests
Past cycles offer a mixed lesson. Overvalued stocks can continue climbing in the short term if hype persists, but those gains have often proven unsustainable. During the dot-com bubble, hundreds of tech companies reached record highs before collapsing in the bear market that followed, with only companies backed by solid fundamentals surviving the fallout.
"Even so, the S&P 500 has delivered cumulative total returns of more than sevenfold over roughly the past two decades (assuming dividends are reinvested), underscoring that long-term buy-and-hold investing has historically outperformed attempts to time the market."
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warren Buffett unveils 11-word stock market warning | 0 | 5 | 05-07-2026 |
| 2 | AI bubble or boom? Why Warren Buffett called Big Short fame Michael Burry ‘Cassandra’ | 0 | 7 | 03-07-2026 |
| 3 | Michael Burry doubles down on AI chip bubble with Micron short | 0 | 5 | 04-07-2026 |
| 4 | Стремление вложиться в резко подешевевшие акции назвали преждевременным | 0 | 10 | 27-07-2026 |
| 5 | AI fatigue takes centre stage as Fed fears ease: Ed Yardeni | 2 | 7 | 03-07-2026 |
| 6 | AI Split Asia Into Winners and Losers. The Balance Looks Unsustainable. | -3 | 6 | 03-07-2026 |
| 7 | Barratt boosts shareholder returns in face of investor pressure | 5 | 7 | 15-07-2026 |
| 8 | 8 Undervalued Stocks That Fit Warren Buffett’s Value Investing Playbook | 0 | 20 | 16-07-2026 |
| 9 | IBM warns AI boom squeezing software budgets | 0 | 7 | 14-07-2026 |
| 10 | STAT+: Halfway into the year, biotech is booming | 5 | 7 | 02-07-2026 |