Analysts weigh in on how many units Take-Two's newly priced opus will rack up in its first year

Image credit: Rockstar

We already know the GTA 6 release date, and now we know how much it will cost – a slightly elevated but not unprecedented price of $79.99, with a $100 special edition adding a series of additional content to the single-player game. We also know that it will be paying lip service to the notion of a physical release, with the boxed version containing only a code to download the game.

Those variables established, we can step up a level on what's become an established industry small-talking point: how many copies is the game going to sell, boosted by 13 years of anticipation and a release calendar that has been all but emptied as other publishers retreat to safety? We asked a group of industry analysts what they were expecting the launch sales to clock in at, now the price is locked down.

"I predict GTA 6 will at least replicate the success of its predecessor," says Aldora's Joost van Dreunen, "and sell-in to at least 30% of the overall console audience, totalling 38 million copies and just over $3 billion in sales within its first 12 months."

Piers Harding-Rolls at Ampere Analysis offers an estimate that comes in just below that. "I think 30-35 million units are achievable by the end of the year," he says.

Gareth Sutcliffe of Enders Analysis says there is hypothetical potential for that to be exceeded, saying that a "blow out sales scenario" would be "in excess of 50 million units in year one, possibly closing in on 60 million," a figure he describes as "unparalleled."

Gareth Sutcliffe thinks GTA 6 could sell north of 50 million units in its first year. | Image credit: Rockstar Games

Alinea Analytics' Rhys Elliott says he "wouldn't be surprised to see around 30 million sold in the first week, building toward 50 million heading into 2027." He concedes that would require the game to sell roughly a fifth of its lifetime sales inside six weeks, but says that GTA 5's launch sales of 11 to 15 million units, on a smaller install base, suggests the demand might be there. "Doubling that on a current base of 90 million-plus PS5s, before you even count Xbox Series, isn't a stretch for the most anticipated launch in the industry's history," he says.

A wild card in this is console hardware. Sony, unsurprisingly, is the partner of choice, marking the price reveal with a blog post proclaiming that the game plays best on PS5. Notably absent is any mention of a hardware bundle, which traditionally accompanies such debuts – which may speak to the risk of further PS5 price increases between now and the console's release.

Hardware supply issues, which have already bedevilled the Steam Machine, may limit the number of people who can play the game at launch – while a competitively priced console bundle might prove a useful sweetener if Sony is once again forced to increase the base price of the PS5.