'Who loses and who wins; who’s in, who’s out.’ King Lear really should have had higher concerns on his mind when he said these lines, as he and his loyal daughter, Cordelia, were at that moment being taken to prison. But even as he fell, court gossip fascinated him.

And so it is in Leinster House. Among politicians and the political lobby, no matter what else is going on in the world, it is the fate of the most powerful that fascinates, always.

Most in Fianna Fáil are convinced Taoiseach Micheál Martin will go in December, after the EU presidency.

But having observed his lust for power and an equal lack of covetousness among his challengers, I’ll believe that when I see it. Nevertheless, the prize of Taoiseach might rally the meekest of challengers. There must be succession planning and quietly the potential successors are lining up.

Jim O’Callaghan, Minister for Justice and Migration

If there was a Fianna Fáil motion of no confidence, only TDs would participate, and the overwhelming favourite among this electoral college is Jim O’Callaghan. 

A motion is unlikely to be needed so a vote will go to a wider series of colleges where, simply put, it will be decided by TDs and the wider, ordinary membership. But O’Callaghan is absolute favourite here too.

It would take something incredible for O’Callaghan not to be elected by acclamation, with FF ignoring the disastrous precedents of overwhelming favouritism in their own party – Brian Cowen – and Leo Varadkar in FG.

When I have referred to O’Callaghan’s geographical location – Dublin Bay South – in the past, it has been misinterpreted.

Yes, Dublin Bay South has a certain clout, spiritually and prestigewise, because Garrett FitzGerald and the likes of former justice minister Michael McDowell were based there. But its location at the heart of southside Dublin is key.

When I first started in Leinster House, FF dominated from Dalkey in the southeast in a huge crescent around to Skerries in the northeast. 

There were national political figures embedded in southside constituencies, like Séamus Brennan, Tom Kitt, Mary Hanafin, Barry Andrews, Seán Ardagh and Conor Lenihan.

Since the wipeout of 2011, FF has not re-established hegemony.

If O’Callaghan, as Taoiseach, can firmly establish a base at southside ground zero he could perhaps bring along a running mate and the positive contagion of a ‘southside acceptable’ FF would see the party surge in what is, after all, the largest concentration of voters in the country.

FG remains FF’s chief rival at elections and for Government primacy. FG has had the whip hand on the southside since 2011.

O’Callaghan’s elitist rugby hero barrister background is maybe seen as negative in FF’s rural heartland. Yet Charles Haughey kept a country estate and an island, knowing the grassroots like their Boss to look the part.

He will benefit hugely from the stardust of his sister Miriam O’Callaghan, who could give him a few lessons on how to interact with the simple folk. If he wants to be leader he has to be a lot more accessible. 

Yet O’Callaghan has another vital tool too – a sense of humour. He has courted unpopularity in his own profession by limiting criminal legal aid, but it has been a populist move.

Winning potential: 9/10

Darragh O’Brien, Minister for Transport

While FG truly fears O’Callaghan, insiders tell me they fear O’Brien as the next leader.

I learned from events a few years ago, when those same FG figures were telling me how impressed they were with Jack Chambers, that maybe, just maybe, they tell me fibs.

O’Brien is certainly on manoeuvres for the impending leadership battle. He has been an Oireachtas member for 19 years – a lot longer than O’Callaghan – and, along with Norma Foley, has been the only permanent presence in Martin Cabinets since 2020.

O’Brien does have an everyman touch reminiscent of fellow northside Dublin TD Bertie Ahern, and is more accessible to the membership than O’Callaghan.

O’Brien will contend, but it will more likely be as part of a co-operation with someone like rural minister Dara Calleary.

There are three FF Cabinet ministers in Dublin, and if O’Callaghan becomes Taoiseach, O’Brien has to be in the conversation to ensure reappointment

Winning potential: 7/10

Jack Chambers, Minister for Public Expenditure

This column has always promoted Chambers as a future leader of Fianna Fáil, but this was predicated on Micheál Martin going on into his mid-80s (which is still possible).

And this was the wily Martin’s masterplan, appointing the now 36-year-old Chambers as deputy leader. 

This ‘Maintain Martin Masterplan’ also saw Chambers appointed director of elections for the Jim Gavin presidential catastrophe. 

Martin may not have known for sure that it was to become a catastrophe, but he certainly used Chambers to insulate himself in advance, just in case it did. 

And it did. He may have been naïve – and have had no choice – but he took a measure of blame for the laughably incompetent affair that he didn’t deserve.

Chambers also has the common touch required of a FF leader and tours the constituencies in his capacity as deputy leader and de facto party enforcer. 

Chambers really needs to work on his media performances and vocal delivery if he’s to excel – and leave the jargon to Martin. His future as FF leader can be better assessed in ten years’ time.

Winning potential: 5/10 (based on 2026, not 2036)

Dara Calleary, Minister for Social Protection

Calleary has deep roots in the party and is the only minister outside Dublin who can contend.

He is more motivated than the others too. He has been on a quiet leadership campaign for nearly a decade, where his personable style has seen him meet virtually every party member at least once.

Calleary was Martin’s deputy leader once, but was overlooked for a full Cabinet portfolio in 2020 – an unheard-of slight.

When he confronted Martin back then, Martin told him: ‘Ah, don’t be like that.’ 

Martin had to put him in Cabinet a few weeks later after he’d sacked Barry Cowen, then forced Calleary out again over Golfgate. Calleary, a non-golfer, was only in Clifden to pay tribute to party stalwarts the Killileas.

His late TD father was a friend of Brian Cowen and the family are seen as keepers of the flame for the old ‘County and Western’ wing.

Calleary is embedded in FF in ways his rivals aren’t and while he probably won’t win, he will be a kingmaker.

Winning potential: 6/10

Mary Butler, Chief Whip

I wrote recently that Jennifer Carroll MacNeill is seen as a contender for the FG leadership primarily because of her gender.

It is an increasing anachronism that neither Civil War party has had a woman leader – and is unlikely to have one in the near future. Mary Butler features here because her supporters believe she will put her name forward – but the patrimony won’t elect her.

It is strange that Children’s Minister Norma Foley is not part of the conversation. But Foley, a friend of Martin and his family, was appointed to Cabinet because she exemplified the trait Martin most likes in a minister – that they are no threat to his position.

Winning potential: 5/10