The mercurially unhinged Trump threatens a reporter and the country of Oman, after he whined about the lack of support from South Korea in prosecuting the Iran war.

Key Takeaways

The Iranian regime is signaling that it would prefer to continue or even escalate fighting with the United States and its regional partners rather than make any serious concessions regarding its maximalist demands if the regime cannot force them to accede to Iran’s demands.
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Recent Iranian threats are likely intended to coerce the United States to surrender to Iranian demands as well as to restore deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and its regional partners by signaling the regime’s willingness to expand the scope of its attacks and conduct preemptive attacks.  
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The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal in hostilities. 
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The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) “used the calm created by the [memorandum of understanding (MOU)]” to coordinate attack plans with its partners and proxies in the region.
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IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle would likely accept a deal with the United States if the United States surrendered to the regime’s demands. Vahidi’s actions suggest that Vahidi and his faction are unlikely to accept a deal that falls short, even if failing to reach an agreement would risk renewed conflict.
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Vahidi’s faction may be willing to accept some economic costs and potential unrest if doing so enables them to achieve their core objectives.
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Some Iranian officials and media have expressed concerns in recent weeks about Iran’s worsening economic conditions and the potential for domestic unrest. It is unclear whether the risk of internal unrest would be sufficient to drive Vahidi to make concessions to receive economic relief, however.
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Vahidi may prefer to take other actions, such as securitizing society and seeking alternative export routes, to mitigate the risks of domestic unrest and economic collapse.

Iran delivered a blunt message to Washington, urging the United States to “accept defeat” as diplomatic efforts involving Oman continue amid the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict.

Iran’s military chief announced a $30,000 reward for anyone who kills or captures a U.S. soldier.

Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief Amir Hatami announced the bounty amid the Islamic Republic’s escalating threats against the United States, according to multiple reports.

“Anyone who kills or captures and hands over an invading American military personnel will receive a reward equivalent to $30,000 or 5 billion tomans from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Army,” Hatami told Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency.

The Iranian regime is signaling that it would prefer to continue or even escalate fighting with the United States and its regional partners rather than make any serious concessions regarding its maximalist demands if the regime cannot force them to accede to Iran’s demands. 

The regime is signaling that it could expand the scope and severity of its attacks against the United States and its allies if they do not acquiesce to Iran’s maximalist demands, which include lifting the US naval blockade and US sanctions, securing recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and stopping regional cooperation on policies the regime deems hostile to its interests, among others.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has reportedly devised new plans for further escalation, including preemptive strikes on internet cables in the Persian Gulf, fomenting domestic unrest in countries with Shia communities like Kuwait and Bahrain, and “potentially” ground operations in Kuwait, according to Iranian officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and public statements.[1]

Iranian officials’ decision to publicize these plans to WSJ was likely meant to have an informational effect, even if the regime is seriously considering these options. Senior Iranian military commanders, including IRGC Political Deputy Yadollah Javani, have warned in recent days that Iran is shifting to an “offensive posture.”[2]

A senior Iranian official similarly told Reuters on August 17 that Iran will adopt a “fully offensive” posture and conduct an attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomatic efforts to lift the blockade fail.[3] These threats are likely intended to coerce the United States to surrender to Iranian demands as well as to restore deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and its regional partners by signaling the regime’s willingness to expand the scope of its attacks and conduct preemptive attacks.  

The regime is likely simultaneously preparing to try to make fighting more costly for the United States should there be a renewal of hostilities. 

The WSJ report added that the IRGC “used the calm created by the [memorandum of understanding (MOU)]” to coordinate attack plans with its partners and proxies in the region.[4] Officials familiar with Arab intelligence findings said that the Iranian regime sent advisers to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon to discuss plans, including a plan for confrontation with Saudi Arabia in coordination with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthis.[5]

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