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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAAs Uganda marked another presidential inauguration in Kampala, one reality loomed large over the ceremony: President Yoweri Museveni has now spent four decades at the helm of the East African nation. At 81, Museveni was sworn in on Tuesday for a fresh five-year mandate, a term many observers believe could be his final one in...
As Uganda marked another presidential inauguration in Kampala, one reality loomed large over the ceremony: President Yoweri Museveni has now spent four decades at the helm of the East African nation.
At 81, Museveni was sworn in on Tuesday for a fresh five-year mandate, a term many observers believe could be his final one in office. Yet even as speculation grows about the twilight of his presidency, attention is increasingly shifting to the man widely viewed as his political successor, his son and army chief, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
The atmosphere surrounding the inauguration reflected that transition in waiting. Kainerugaba supervised several days of rehearsals ahead of the military parade, while Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets thundered above the ceremonial grounds in Kampala. Thousands gathered in Kololo, a suburb of the capital, as Museveni took the oath of office and received the traditional symbols of authority.
READ ALSO: Museveni secures seventh term as Bobi Wine rejects Uganda’s disputed election result
For many Ugandans, the bigger question is no longer whether Museveni’s era is drawing to a close, but how power will eventually change hands.
Kainerugaba has made little effort to hide his ambition. The 52-year-old general has openly stated his intention to succeed his father, insisting recently that the mission could not be stopped.
Still, analysts believe his path to the presidency remains politically delicate. Some see the possibility of an unconstitutional transfer of power backed by the military, while others expect the ruling party to engineer a legal route through parliament, where Museveni’s allies dominate overwhelmingly. A competitive electoral victory, however, is viewed as far less certain, particularly with opposition figure Bobi Wine still commanding strong public support after twice contesting the presidency and rejecting the outcome of the January polls that secured Museveni another term.
The growing influence of Kainerugaba has become increasingly visible within Uganda’s political establishment.
Last month, parliamentary speaker Anita Among openly pledged support for his ambitions while addressing lawmakers gathered for the general’s birthday celebration.
“For the sake of MK, just assure MK that we will do whatever it takes,” Among told a group of lawmakers celebrating the general’s birthday, mentioning Kainerugaba’s initials. “In the 11th parliament, the opposition got swallowed. In the 12th parliament, it is going to be walloped.”
READ ALSO: Uganda’s post-election drama deepens as the army hunts for Bobi Wine
Her comments reinforced what many observers already suspect: that Uganda’s ruling elite is steadily aligning itself behind the president’s son in anticipation of a future transition.
Political analyst Angelo Izama believes the shift is already underway behind the scenes.
“While people are waiting for the legal transition from Museveni, the de facto transition has already happened,” said Angelo Izama, an analyst who runs the Uganda-based Fanaka Kwawote think tank in an AP report. “Kainerugaba, more than the president, is the final voice on defense and security matters.”
Kainerugaba’s rise through the military has long attracted scrutiny. Critics have for years referred to his steady ascent as the “Muhoozi Project,” a carefully managed effort to position him for the presidency. Although both Museveni and his son repeatedly denied such claims in the past, recent developments have strengthened suspicions that Uganda could be preparing for hereditary succession.
Andrew Mwenda, a journalist and close ally of Kainerugaba, recently argued that many insiders already recognize Museveni’s declining grip on state affairs.
“Many Ugandans close to power have learned this lesson. That the president is old and exhausted, both intellectually and physically,” Andrew Mwenda, a close ally and friend of Kainerugaba, wrote last month in The Independent online newspaper. “He has a limited ability to monitor many things across a large spectrum of sectors.”
Trained in military institutions in both the United States and Britain, Kainerugaba first joined the armed forces in the late 1990s. He later commanded the presidential guard unit, which evolved into an elite special forces outfit. Beyond the military, he also established the Patriotic League of Uganda, a political movement whose supporters include ministers, influential business figures and government loyalists.
Yet despite his growing authority, Kainerugaba is often seen as lacking the political touch that helped Museveni maintain power for decades. Museveni built alliances across rival camps and frequently persuaded opponents to join his administration. His son, by contrast, has cultivated a tougher and more combative image, particularly through inflammatory social media posts and his aggressive stance against military officers accused of corruption, including former allies.
Museveni himself entered power through armed struggle in 1986, presenting himself then as a reformer determined to rescue Uganda from years of turmoil and dictatorship. At the time, he sharply criticised African leaders who clung to office for too long. Over the years, however, his position evolved, insisting later that prolonged leadership was acceptable if backed by electoral legitimacy.
Although Museveni remains a key Western ally on regional security matters and is credited by supporters for maintaining stability, critics argue that Uganda has steadily become more authoritarian under his watch. Constitutional term and age limits have been removed, while opposition politicians have faced arrests, intimidation and political exclusion.
Concerns have also intensified following the recent passage of controversial legislation aimed at restricting foreign influence.
The new law bars any “agent of a foreigner” from receiving foreign grants or financial support exceeding 400 million Ugandan shillings, about $110,000, within a year unless approved by the interior minister. Rights groups and opposition parties fear the measure could severely limit the operations of civil society organisations and political activists.
READ ALSO: Bobi Wine reveals he fled Uganda after weeks in hiding following disputed election
Wine’s National Unity Platform condemned the law in strong terms, describing it as “unconstitutional, irrelevant and brought in bad faith to further persecute those with divergent views.”
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