RBC Economics expects recovery will likely be uneven across Canada this fall.

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Canada’s housing market appears to have hit bottom and could be in recovery mode, though its path is likely to be bumpy, according to a new report. RBC Economics published a report earlier this month, noting that resales have been on a “winning streak since April.”

Inventory is moderating while prices are stabilizing. RBC pointed to added upside as housing affordability has improved along with a better job market.

In turn, it argued that growing buyer confidence could unlock pent-up demand as the built-up inventory of homes on the market begins to decline.

Still, RBC struck a cautious tone for the fall, noting the recovery will likely be uneven across Canada.

The deep corrections in Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area markets have “left a deep mark on sentiment,” leaving former, would-be buyers reluctant to return.

What’s more, any increase in demand in the next few months will not prevent further sales and price declines by year’s end.

RBC predicted that sales will drop about four per cent, while the benchmark price could fall about two per cent to $794,200.

Yet it added that sales will improve nearly seven per cent in 2027, with the benchmark price expected to gain almost one per cent to $800,700.

It cautioned that low confidence among prospective buyers — a key headwind to sales in Canada — had been fuelled by a slumping market of falling prices, poor affordability, a soft economy and job security concerns.

Those conditions are easing, it added, with expectations of improving economic growth for the remainder of this year and into 2027.

Both should support modest housing demand growth.

Still, conditions in the months ahead are likely to be volatile, RBC added, and the recovery is not guaranteed. To that end, the report pointed to four market recovery false starts already since 2023.