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Report: US cities where the housing market is suddenly contracting

Дата публикации: 18-09-2026 12:37:05

For years, homeowners in America's hottest housing markets could name their price. But that era may finally be coming to an end. 

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For years, homeowners in America's hottest housing markets could name their price. But that era may finally be coming to an end. 

Values are coming under growing pressure in some of the country's biggest metropolitan areas – with Austin leading the pack as sellers are forced to become more realistic about what buyers want to pay.

The median listing price per square foot fell year over year in 36 of the nation's 50 largest metro areas in August, according to Realtor.com, as high mortgage rates, growing inventories and shifting buyer demand reshape the housing market.

Nationally, listing prices per square foot fell 1.8 percent from a year earlier, marking the tenth consecutive month of annualized declines.

The biggest drops were concentrated in the South and West – particularly in markets that saw enormous price gains during the Covid-19 pandemic housing boom. 

Realtor.com's analysis covers metropolitan areas across the country, which can encompass several cities, suburbs and rural communities spanning multiple counties. 

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas, recorded the steepest decline, with listing prices per square foot falling 8.1 percent from a year earlier. The metro's median listing price was $450,000.

Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, followed with a 5.6 percent decline and a median listing price of $391,950, while Memphis, Tennessee-Mississippi-Arkansas, saw prices per square foot drop 4.1 percent, with a median listing price of $299,995.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas, recorded the steepest decline, with listing prices per square foot falling 8.1 percent from a year earlier.

Housing divide deepens between US regions 

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, California, came next, down 3.9 percent, although its $908,700 median listing price makes it a very different proposition from Memphis. 

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas, fell 3.6 percent to a median listing price of $324,450, while Denver-Aurora-Centennial, Colorado, dropped 3.4 percent, with a median of $574,913.

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Maryland, was down 3.2 percent, with a median listing price of $375,000, followed by San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, California, at 2.7 percent and $899,000. 

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida, fell 2.6 percent to $417,000, while Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Oregon-Washington, rounded out the top ten with a 2.4 percent decline and a $595,000 median listing price.

But these figures do not mean that every home in these cities has suddenly lost huge value. Price per square foot can be influenced by the type and size of homes coming onto the market, as well as by genuine changes in what buyers are willing to pay.

Still, the trend is a sign that sellers in many once-booming markets no longer have the upper hand they enjoyed during the pandemic.

'The most striking feature of this list is that all of the ten metros with the largest decline in listing price per square foot are in the South and West,' Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner told the Daily Mail.

'This goes to really highlight the regional divide we still see in the housing market, where the Northeast and Midwest are seeing very different conditions than the South and West.'

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, California, saw prices fall by 3.9 percent, although its $908,700 median listing price makes it a very different proposition from other areas.

Pandemic boomtowns give back their housing gains 

Berner said new construction in the South and West has helped replenish the supply of homes, giving buyers more choice at a time when high mortgage rates are keeping many would-be purchasers on the sidelines.

'Though all four regions are feeling the demand-side squeeze of high mortgage rates that slow down sales activity, the Northeast and Midwest still have depleted inventories of homes that are keeping prices afloat,' he said.

Austin is a particularly striking example. The Texas capital became one of the country's biggest pandemic boomtowns, with home prices soaring as remote workers flocked to the city and buyers took advantage of historically cheap mortgages.

Now, those gains are beginning to unwind.

'In Austin, there's the additional price pressure of a long, slow recovery from the pandemic shock,' Berner said.

'Home prices quite simply got out of line five years ago, with year-over-year growth rates above 30 percent for much of 2021, and they have been stubborn to fall back to where they belong for some time.'

He said the pressure is particularly visible in areas north and south of central Austin, where neighborhoods with large numbers of listings are seeing prices retreat.

Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel similarly pointed to the pandemic boom as a major factor behind the declines in several of the biggest losers.

'One common thread for most markets - including Austin, Tampa, San Antonio, Denver - is 2020-22 boomtowns continuing to give back some of their pandemic-era gains,' he said.

'These are also, by and large, places with much more inventory now than pre-pandemic norms.'

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas, saw median prices decline 3.6 percent to $324,450.

Home prices still rising across most US metros 

But listing prices tell only part of the story.

Nadia Evangelou, principal economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors, told the Daily Mail that her data shows fewer metro areas experiencing annual price declines than a year ago.

In the second quarter of 2025, 24 percent of metro areas had lower prices than the previous year. 

By the second quarter of 2026, that share had fallen to 20 percent, meaning prices were still rising in 80 percent of metros.

'We tend to see more price pressure in markets where inventory has increased and buyers have more choices,' Evangelou said.

She pointed to parts of Florida and Texas as examples, although some Florida markets had actually experienced larger price declines a year earlier.

In the latest data, Tampa's closed-sale prices were up 2.5 percent year over year, while Orlando was flat.

That distinction is particularly important because a fall in the price per square foot of newly listed homes does not necessarily mean homeowners across an entire city are suddenly selling at deep discounts.

San Francisco illustrates the point. The metro recorded a 3.9 percent annual decline in listing price per square foot – despite remaining one of the country's most expensive and traditionally competitive housing markets.

Krimmel said the change may have more to do with the types of homes being listed than a sudden collapse in demand.

'It's not about San Francisco homes losing value, but rather how expensive the available inventory is this year relative to last,' he said.

Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, followed with a 5.6 percent decline and a median listing price of $391,950.

Tech uncertainty weighs on San Francisco homebuyers 

There are fewer small, expensive homes in central San Francisco, which are scarce and continue to sell quickly, while more large homes in outer suburbs have come onto the market.

That mix can pull down the average price per square foot even if demand for desirable properties remains strong.

Local real estate agent Veronica Peter also told Realtor.com that the San Francisco-area market is being affected by uncertainty in the technology industry.

'A huge portion of our workforce in Fremont holds tech-related jobs such as software engineers, data analysts, and web developers,' she said, pointing to restructuring and the growing use of artificial intelligence.

She said buyers are feeling the combined pressure of employment uncertainty and high mortgage rates, while a weaker stock market has also affected the cash some buyers had planned to use for down payments.

Meanwhile, inventory is giving buyers more leverage in parts of the country.

Real estate investor Michael Carbonare recently pointed to 4.88 months of existing-home supply nationally, the highest level since 2015, arguing that the old 'housing shortage' narrative is becoming harder to apply uniformly across the country.

Inventory is still nowhere near the levels seen during the 2008 housing crash, but some individual markets are now approaching six or seven months of supply – giving buyers considerably more choice and forcing sellers to compete more aggressively.

For buyers who have spent years watching home prices race ahead of their paychecks, that could finally offer some breathing room.

But with mortgage rates still high and affordability stretched, cheaper homes alone may not be enough to bring the housing market roaring back to life.

Evangelou said nearly four in ten metro areas required a six-figure income to qualify for a typical home in the second quarter of 2026, even with a 20 percent down payment.

'So more inventory and some price relief are helping buyers, but affordability remains the biggest challenge,' she said.

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