HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif. — Rheumatologists should exercise caution in interpreting clinical trial results, with a particular awareness of potential errors and confounders, said a presenter at the Congress of Clinical Rheumatology West.“Think critically when interpreting trial results and be careful not to over-interpret the delta between the active and placebo arms,” Andreas Kerschbaumer, MD, PhD, a postdoctoral scholar in the division of immunology and rheumatology at Stanford University, told Healio in an interview. “Study design, where a trial recruited, and
September 19, 2026
2 min read
Add topic to email alerts
Receive an email when new articles are posted on
Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on .
Added to email alerts
We were unable to process your request. Please try again later. If you continue to have this issue please contact customerservice@slackinc.com.
HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif. — Rheumatologists should exercise caution in interpreting clinical trial results, with a particular awareness of potential errors and confounders, said a presenter at the Congress of Clinical Rheumatology West.
“Think critically when interpreting trial results and be careful not to over-interpret the delta between the active and placebo arms,” Andreas Kerschbaumer, MD, PhD, a postdoctoral scholar in the division of immunology and rheumatology at Stanford University, told Healio in an interview. “Study design, where a trial recruited, and inadequate adherence to background therapy before enrollment can all inflate placebo responses.
“Furthermore, single-arm studies and case series attract considerable attention, but should be seen as hypothesis-generating,” he added. “Randomized controlled trials continue to be the cornerstone of drug development programs.”
According to Kerschbaumer, clinical trial results for all conditions under the rheumatology umbrella should be subject to rigorous interpretation.
“I came to this topic through my mentors at the Medical University of Vienna, namely Professor Josef Smolen, MD, and Professor Daniel Aletaha, MD, who gave me the opportunity and the insights to start working on clinical trials across different diseases in rheumatology,” he said. “Their ideas shaped how I approach some of the unresolved questions in the field, and framed my PhD thesis and the analyses that came with it.”
According to Kerschbaumer, looking beyond the study abstract can be rewarding and lead to new discoveries, particularly in rheumatology where few curative therapies exist.
“I have always found it fascinating to unravel signals we tend to take for granted when interpreting trial results, such as placebo responses,” he said. “How we perceive and interpret those results has implications for patients and their treating physicians, but also for trial investigators, sponsors and regulators.”
A study’s methodology can often be just as revealing as its results and conclusions, Kerschbaumer added.
“The key point I want to make the audience understand is that everything we measure within clinical trials is prone to measurement errors,” he said. “To some extent, measurement errors might be just noise, but a substantial piece of it might be explained by methodological factors that we might be able to account for, if we are conscious about them.”
According to Kerschbaumer, the research community should continue to seek a deeper understanding of how rheumatic and autoimmune conditions behave and impact patients within clinical trials.
“As long as we do not have truly objective measurements of disease activity, we must pay close attention to what might affect subjective outcomes,” he said. “For example, the design of a trial itself, how frequently patients are assessed, or whether a placebo arm exists at all, can shape patient expectations and therefore the outcomes they report.”
For more information:Andreas Kerschbaumer, MD, PhD, can be reached at akersch@stanford.edu.

The term “placebo” derives from the Latin phrase meaning “I shall please,” and entered pharmacologic use in the 1700s. Modern placebo responses represent a complex biological phenomenon that extends well beyond a simple psychological effect.
The total improvement observed in placebo groups reflects several factors, including natural disease fluctuation, spontaneous remission, regression to the mean, background therapy, reporting biases, the Hawthorne effect (or the change in human behavior or performance that happens simply because people know they are being watched or studied), and true placebo-related physiologic responses driven by treatment expectations and rituals.
Expectancy appears to be the strongest and most consistent driver of placebo response. Neurobiologic studies demonstrate activation of catecholamine, endogenous opioid, cholecystokinin and endocannabinoid pathways, with reproducible changes in brain networks involving the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, nucleus accumbens, and rostral anterior cingulate cortex. These findings confirm that placebo responses are measurable biologic events rather than purely psychological phenomena.
Factors such as clinician empathy, perceived expertise and the therapeutic relationship further influence outcomes. Placebo effects are generally stronger with injections than oral therapies, and increase with greater clinical contact and more elaborate treatment rituals.
The opposite phenomenon, the nocebo effect, occurs when negative expectations lead to symptom worsening or increased adverse-event reporting. Both placebo and nocebo effects can substantially influence trial outcomes.
In rheumatoid arthritis, placebo ACR20 responses range from approximately 10% to 45%, with pooled estimates near 29% at 3 months. Meta-regression analyses of RA trials from 1999 to 2018 demonstrated rising placebo response rates over time, associated with shorter disease duration, lower baseline disease activity, evolving trial designs, and expectation bias.
Importantly, placebo responses affect objective measures such as C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate, indicating that biological and disease-related factors contribute significantly.
Placebo responses also vary across countries and rheumatic diseases. Lower-income regions tend to report higher placebo responses, while median placebo rates exceed 25% across many rheumatic disease trials, being lower in vasculitis.
Strategies to reduce placebo inflation include neutral patient communication, greater reliance on objective endpoints, assessment of expectancy and blinding integrity, active placebos, placebo run-in phases (and eliminating high placebo responders), re-randomization of placebo nonresponders, and three-arm trials incorporating untreated control groups. These approaches help distinguish true treatment effects from the many factors that contribute to placebo response.
David A. McLain, MD, MACR, FACP, FRCP
Disclosures: McLain reports no relevant financial disclosures.
Published by:
Healio Interview
Reference:Disclosures: Kerschbaumer reports receiving speaking fees from Stada and UCB, consulting fees from JNJ and UCB, and travel fees from UCB.
Ask a clinical question and tap into Healio AI's knowledge base.
Read more about
Add topic to email alerts
Receive an email when new articles are posted on
Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on .
Added to email alerts
We were unable to process your request. Please try again later. If you continue to have this issue please contact customerservice@slackinc.com.