With the prospect of losing power after 16 years looming, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has framed Hungary's 12 April election as a stark choice between 'war or peace', claiming that his opponents would draw the country into a war with Russia in neighbouring Ukraine.

This tactic worked like a charm four years ago. However, at that time, there were fewer than two months between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the day when Hungarians were due to vote. Meanwhile, the Hungarian economy remains mired in stagnation, after a sluggishly subsiding post-attack inflation surge. Even experts are not certain whether this approach could work again.

"Lacking a strong performance of the economy, Orbán tries to present himself as the guarantor of stability and security, saying that if he goes, there will be chaos," Róbert László from the Budapest think-tank Political Capital told Reuters.

This has worked when it comes to strengthening Fidesz' voter base, but it is not yet clear whether he will manage to address undecided voters or lure back voters who drifted to Tisza,

he added.

Orbán stressed that the real opponents were not the opposition parties, but their Brussels masters. "The Tisza Party is “a downright Brussels creation,” he said. “Tisza was formed by the Germans, under the leadership of Herr Weber and the motherly care of Ursula von der Leyen.” 

Viktor Orbán was mentioned during a panel discussion on populism at the Munich Security Conference. Manfred Weber, President of the European People's Party (EPP), stated that he would not waver in his opposition to the radical right and populists, citing the Hungarian PM as an example.

The firewall exists. I personally expelled, kicked out Viktor Orbán of my party, because enough was enough. And today Viktor is far away from any kind of common sense on this. He’s campaigning against the support for Ukraine, so he’s far away from this,

said Weber.

In 2021, Fidesz left the faction that was moving towards excluding them, having already been suspended from it. They also left the European party family that supported the group.

According to the EPP President, this is a clear red line and they will not cooperate with parties that do not adhere to three fundamental principles: being pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law. He also said that they differ from the left in that, in his view, economic growth must be accompanied by reduced bureaucracy and managed migration, otherwise "the next European election in 2029 will be a big festival right extreme".

“International financial power stands before us openly, bare in all its glory. They know, too, that the stakes are high. It’s as clear as day that the oil business, the world of bankers and the Brussels elite are preparing to form a government in Hungary,” said Orbán.

The Left, “which now runs under the name ‘Tisza Ltd.’” and has already been given billions, represents them again, they concluded an agreement with them, they are their outpost, and will be the executor of their expectations, he added.

Therefore, they came to an agreement with Shell, and they came to an agreement with Erste Bank. Shell, along with the other actors of the energy sector, merely want to get their money back. Erste and the other banks, too, want the same. While Brussels is demanding its own share so that they can give it to Ukraine, he warned. 

Shell, Erste and Brussels have formed a war alliance. They are the ones who make money on the bloodshed; they are the ones who have a vested interest in the continuation of the fighting; they are

the tollkeepers of death, the dogs of war.

Naturally, they do not take part in the fighting, they have the Ukrainians for that, and if needs be, the neighbouring peoples of Central Europe, Orbán observed. 

Shell is one of the main winners of the war. They have made ten billion dollars on the war and the sanctions against the Russians. Their goal is to detach us from Russian oil and gas, to increase prices and to multiply their profits also in Hungary, he said, expressing resentment, Orbán said. He stressed that they do not care that this will ruin Hungarian households and businesses. Today, Hungarians pay 250,000 forints annually on average for household energy. People in Poland pay 800,000, while people in the Czech Republic a million.

We have already debunked Orbán's warning of skyrocketing utility bills should Hungary had to decouple from Russian energy:

This is the future Shell intends for us, this is why they delegated their own representative into a prospective government,

Orbán noted. 

He claimed that Erste Bank did not care that 400,000 people die and become disabled every year, "as long as the cash registers keep ringing and the money keeps rolling in."

Telex asked both Shell and Erste about Orbán's harsh remarks. They replied the following:

Erste Bank Hungary Zrt. opposes all forms of war and violence in accordance with its fundamental principles. Erste Bank Hungary Zrt. does not participate in political campaigns in any form and complies fully with all applicable laws and regulations.

In accordance with Shell's global principles, it does not comment on party political issues.

When a country's prime minister worships a president who could also be dubbed the Don of Deceit, the Master of Mendacity, the Foreperson of Falsity or the Cardinal of Canard, it is reasonable to question whether reality is central to his campaign speeches.

The Hungarian government is also increasing Shell's profits. Last September, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that the government had signed the largest-volume, longest-term natural gas purchase agreement with Shell.

At that time, the minister apparently had no idea what a ruthless and profit-hungry vulture Shell is.

"Our relationship with Shell has always been based on trust, mutual respect, innovation, and a long-term commitment to sustainable growth. We greatly appreciate this reliable partnership in circumstances that pose extraordinary challenges to energy security," he said, referring to the company that would cripple Hungarian households with exorbitant utility bills.

"We are ready to further expand our strategic cooperation with Shell. We hope that this agreement will serve as a flagship, which will be followed by smaller and perhaps larger 'ships' in the future," he concluded, without thinking about what kind of death ships he was talking about.

Erste's work as a "tollkeeper of death" was tanked by central bank (MNB) Governor Mihály Varga last May. The Chairman of the supervisory board of Erste Group Bank AG was awarded the Knight's Cross of the Hungarian Order of Merit. Friedrich Rödler also supported the work of Erste Bank Hungary Zrt. for many years. "Congratulations," wrote Mihály Varga at the time on his Facebook page, although in hindsight, a cynical tone can easily be detected in his words, Telex pointed out.

Earlier, at the end of 2023, the government wrote that "an extremely successful and stable relationship has developed between the Hungarian government and the Erste Group", and that "it continues to regard the Erste Group as an important partner and a company committed to the country in the long term, as well as one of the key players in the Hungarian banking sector". The government also thanked the company for contributing to the restoration of economic growth and protecting jobs and families.

Shell, the world's largest oil trader, does not disclose the division’s profits. However, it reported that stronger trading and refining margins boosted adjusted earnings in its chemicals and products division by $706 million in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, Reuters reported last November.

Needless to say, it is impossible to calculate exactly how much Shell earned from the war. The company's total profit, which includes revenue from sources other than oil, was $21.4 billion in 2018, $40 billion in 2022 and $23.7 billion in 2024. The real swing occurred only in the year the war broke out.

Curtailed Russian exports have boosted global refining margins, benefiting energy giants like Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and France's TotalEnergies, which jointly operate nearly 11 million bpd, over 10% of global refining capacity.

The four companies posted a combined 61% rise in profits from refining operations in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, which contributed in large part to their 20% rise in overall profits, Reuters added.

In an article published at the end of November last year, G7 calculated that, since the outbreak of the war, the Hungarian oil company has earned more than 1.5 trillion Hungarian forints from Russian discounts on Ural crude oil. It is therefore particularly advantageous for Hungarian energy group Mol and the Hungarian government to maintain cheap imports of Russian crude oil, because while it was not much cheaper than sources available by sea before the war, the difference has grown enormously since the outbreak of the war and the imposition of international sanctions. However, since Russian exports have been redirected to Asia, this difference has decreased. Nevertheless, since US sanctions were imposed on Lukoil and Rosneft, the difference has become noticeable again, local business news portal HVG pointed out.

Of course, Mol could not keep this money. The 480-forint gasoline price cap cost the company HUF 150 billion. After it was phased out, the government increased the tax on profits from the difference between Brent and Ural prices, raising it from 25% to first 40% and then 95%, G7 reminded.

HVG concluded that, since 2023, the Hungarian state has been one of the main beneficiaries of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It expected to receive HUF 200 billion from this source in 2022 and HUF 300 billion in 2023, most of which was paid by Mol.

The paper pointed out that it is no coincidence that the government is doing everything in its power to perpetuate the idea that the Hungarian economy would collapse without Russian oil. This explains why Mol, Péter Szijjártó and Viktor Orbán have all disparaged the capacity of the Adria pipeline through Croatia, as this has allowed them to justify the need for Russian imports. The Russian source is so valuable that while Hungary used 78% Russian crude oil in 2021, this figure jumped to 92% by 2025. Therefore, the Hungarian government not only supports the Russian war machine by purchasing crude oil, it also earns a lot from it.