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A new battleground poll released by the AARP shows Democrat Troy Jackson with a narrow lead over Republican Susan Collins in Maine’s U.S. Senate race.

Jackson holds a 3 percentage point lead over Collins, 50% to 47%, which is within the survey’s margin of error of 3.1%.

But Jackson is trailing Collins among an important segment of Maine’s electorate — voters over 50 who are more likely to split their tickets than vote along party lines.

And Jackson is underperforming fellow Democrat Hannah Pingree, who holds a 13 percentage point lead over Republican Bobby Charles, 52% to 39%, in the governor’s race. Independent Rick Bennett drew 6%.

The survey of 982 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 20-22 by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. It offers insight into how older Mainers, who are among the most reliable voters in the state, are leaning in Maine’s closely watched race between Collins and Jackson.

The survey is further evidence that Collins remains a formidable opponent in a midterm cycle that is expected to be difficult for Republicans nationally, since President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are at historic lows.

The AARP poll found that 61% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while 37% approved. And 53% preferred Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, compared to the 43% for Republicans.

Maine’s older voters, Fabrizio Ward partner Bob Ward said, are “highly engaged. They’re paying attention and they’re looking for candidates who understand the issues that affect their daily lives.”

The top issue for all voters surveyed was affordability (44%). It was cited as the top issue by 33% of voters 50 and older, who said their main concerns were the price of gas and groceries.

Among older voters, 93% said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate that makes sure workers get the Social Security benefits they earned, 85% for someone who would protect the program from cuts and oppose increasing the retirement age, and 84% for someone who would lower the cost of health care and prescription drugs.

The poll found that voters 50 and older, who the AARP said comprised 60% or more in the last two federal election cycles, are breaking toward Collins and Pingree.

Collins holds a 9-point advantage among these older voters, about 20% of whom planned to split their tickets. Among these swing voters, Collins holds a 53-point advantage, while Pingree holds a 28-point advantage over Charles.

Bennett, meanwhile, drew support 32% support among older swing voters in the governor’s race.

“It just speaks to how Sen. Collins is a different kind of Republican,” Ward said. “(She) maintains her base, but also reaches out to the center. This is going to be a really close race.”

Jackson holds a roughly two point lead over Collins, according to polling averages from the election website FiftyPlusOne.

A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena conducted around the same time as the AARP’s survey found Collins with a 3 point lead over Jackson, 49% to 46%, which was also within the margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

That poll found also found swing voters breaking towards Collins, including 8% of respondents that identified as Democrats.

The five-term Republican drew 13% support from people saying they wanted Democrats to won control the Senate, 12% from people who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris for president in 2024.

The survey also found that Collins held a commanding leading among respondents aged 45-64. She led Jackson among that group 57% to 38%. But they practically split the 65 and over vote, with Jackson getting 48% to Collins’s 47%.

Both the NYT/Press Herald/ Siena and AARP polls were conducted before ProPublica reported that the Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation had been gearing up for bribery and corruption probe aimed at determining whether Collins was steering federal contracts to a defense contractor in exchange for political donations. That effort was dropped when Trump took office in 2025.

Collins has “vigorously” denied the allegations.