"I think it's going be a new era for the country," said Danielle Smith

Premier Danielle Smith likes the chances of a new multibillion-dollar pipeline moving oil from Alberta to the south British Columbia coastline getting built.

And those odds just improved on Thursday.

“I feel like it’s pretty close to 100 per cent,” Smith said in an interview from Fort McMurray, moments after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the proposed West Coast pipeline has been designated a project of national interest, allowing for its approval to be expedited.

“I think it’s going be a new era for the country.”

The newly named Pacific Link oil pipeline took a key step forward Thursday with the federal government deeming it a project of national importance, following a three-month evaluation by the federal Major Projects Office.

With the designation in hand under the Building Canada Act, the federal energy regulator and Major Projects Office will review the proposal, as well as consult with Indigenous communities, landowners, and other stakeholders.

The Major Projects Office will set the conditions for the development by September 2027, which would then allow for construction to start, with a possible startup around 2032 or 2033.

It marks an acceleration from the Trans Mountain expansion, which took more than a decade to unfold — from initial regulatory filings to it being built — while other proposed pipelines such as Northern Gateway and Energy East failed after years of planning and significant investment.

“Rather than leave the industry guessing and spending billions of dollars — never knowing if they’re going to get final approval and buy-in from government — it’s now both the federal government, as well as us, giving the pre-approval, pending the feasibility and working out the technical specifications,” Smith added.

“And that’s a world of difference.”

The proposed bitumen pipeline, previously estimated by the province to cost between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion, would move one million barrels per day from Bruderheim to southern British Columbia. It’s backed by the federal government’s Trans Mountain Corp., the provincial government, and Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline.

“The oilsands are part of Canada’s once-in-a-generation opportunity to become a global energy superpower,” Carney told reporters.

“The Canadian taxpayer is going to make a lot of money off this pipeline.”

The federal government said Indigenous communities will be offered at least a 10 per cent stake in the development.

The proposed development would see a tank terminal and offshore marine loading facility built at Roberts Bank, south of Vancouver, able to load oil onto large carrier vessels, supplying heavy crude to countries in Asia.

“On energy, the scope is immense,” India’s high commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, said in an interview last week.

“We want to take a lot from Canada, as much as Canada can give us. But . . . you need to ramp up your production. You need to ramp up your movement across borders. If you can do that, we would buy as much as you want.”

With the Trans Mountain expansion operating since in mid-2024, it’s proven there is demand for Canadian oil in China, India and Japan.

“Canada is in a fantastic position, and we just have to do our work over the next year, and hopefully we’ll see some shovels in the ground (next) Sept. 1,” the premier said.

The project will require oilsands operators to boost their production in the coming years, as well as move ahead with the Pathways carbon capture network in northern Alberta.

The ongoing trade war with the United States, and the Trump administration’s control over the Venezuelan oil production, has underscored the importance of trade diversification for Canada’s largest export beyond just  the U.S., analysts note.

According to the federal government, the Pacific Link project, along with efforts to optimize the Trans Mountain system, could lower Canada’s pipeline dependency on the U.S. markets from about 82 per cent last year, down to 65 to 70 per cent.

“We just have to make sure this thing gets built to break away from a North American paradigm,” said energy economist Peter Tertzakian, founder of Studio.Energy.

“It’s time for Canada to grow up and go global with its commodities, and the world wants our commodities.”

While many industry leaders were initially skeptical a year ago that a new pipeline to the Pacific Coast would be built — given past opposition in British Columbia and previous Trudeau government policies — the view is changing that the project will proceed.

“I’m in the 85-per-cent-plus camp. It does make sense for the good of all Canadians,” said Surge Energy CEO Paul Colborne, a Calgary-based oil producer.

“The pipeline is great, but also I’d say the sentiment change that projects like this are (having) is really helping people be open to Canada again, coming back to invest in Canada.”

With polls indicating strong support for new pipelines, there has also been a shift in public sentiment in favour of projects that will get Canadian products to market, said former federal natural resources minister Seamus O’Regan.

However, more work must be done on the pipeline, such as conducting important consultations with Indigenous communities in British Columbia and Alberta, he added.

“You can’t just say, ‘Well, this has got to happen,’ ” said O’Regan.

Smith said it’s also important the project’s shipping tolls are competitive with other export routes, likely in the range of $8 to $11 per barrel. Another issue will be to create a new royalty structure that ensures oilsands operators have enough confidence to invest in expanding production.

“We believe this project could be up and running in the early 2030s, delivering tens of billions of dollars a year in GDP for the country,” federal Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said in an interview.

“And obviously, it puts cards in our hands in the world that we’re in today.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

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