People enjoy the view from the top of the golden dome during a tour at the Statehouse in Montpelier in May 2025. File photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

Election Day is on the horizon. There’s no presidential race on the ballot, but all of Vermont’s state and county-level offices, our lone U.S. House seat and two other ballot items are up for Vermonters to vote on.

VTDigger is watching the most important contests and votes this election cycle, and we’re here to tell you what to keep an eye on. 

Nov. 3 is Election Day. Here are five stories we’ll be watching:

1. The most exciting race for governor in years — probably
2. A lieutenant governor race with candidates who’ve had (or have) the job
3. “Rural Vermont Rising”: What impact will the movement have?
4. How national politics could impact the balance of power in Montpelier
5. Two constitutional amendments: collective bargaining and equal rights

For years, the question has not really been whether Republican Gov. Phil Scott would win — it was how much he’d win by. In the last two elections, he got a majority of votes in every city and town in the state, and his 2024 margin of victory was his largest ever.

Now seeking a sixth term, Scott is up against a challenger who could well give him the biggest run for his money yet: Amanda Janoo. The progressive Democrat rode to victory in August’s primary on a wave of voters’ discontent with the status quo and by promising bold changes like universal primary care funded by taxing the rich. Scott, meanwhile, is calling for new tax cuts and limiting state spending.

Janoo, an economist, has raised far more money at this stage of the race than any Scott challenger since 2020. And she did so after entering state politics earlier this year with virtually no name recognition and having never run for office before.

One poll found Scott’s job approval rating at its lowest level on record, though another still ranks him as the most popular governor in the country, an accolade he’s had for years straight. He remains popular with many Democrats, especially moderate ones, who appreciate his willingness to push back on the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and efforts to curtail mail-in voting.

The question is whether Janoo can build an even broader coalition than she did in the Democratic primary, in just a matter of months, to oust him.

While Janoo’s name will be new to many voters, both candidates for the state’s second-highest office may be more familiar. Incumbent Lt. Gov. John Rodgers, a Republican, is running for a second term. His Democratic opponent is Molly Gray, who served one term as lieutenant governor from 2021-23. Gray left her post to run, unsuccessfully, for a seat in Congress.

In Vermont, lieutenant governor is a job with few day-to-day responsibilities beyond presiding over the state Senate. But it does come with a bully pulpit to advocate for legislation and key issues the office-holder cares about. 

The race has interesting political lines. Rodgers served for years in the state Legislature as a Democrat, but switched his party label to Republican to run for lieutenant governor in 2024. He said at the time the party had grown too far to the left for his taste. Gray is no staunch progressive, though she is differentiating herself as a more vocal critic of President Trump’s administration than Rodgers and is touting her advocacy for refugees since leaving office. 

Rodgers has been aligning himself closely with Gov. Scott’s messaging in campaign materials this year. How well the governor does this year could well determine how well Rodgers does, too. 

Both lieutenant governor candidates are playing up their rural credentials on the campaign trail. Gray was born in the Orange County town of Newbury though now lives in Burlington. Rodgers lives on his family farm in Glover, a town in the Northeast Kingdom where he grew up.

Expect a lot of talk on the campaign trail about Vermont’s rural communities and the issues that are most pressing there. It’s no doubt a response to the backlash that Democratic leaders in the Legislature faced earlier this year over land use regulations, especially a 2024 law known as Act 181. 

The grassroots movement that led to significant repeals of some land use measures has coalesced into a group called “Rural Vermont Rising.” The group’s most visible demonstration was on the Statehouse steps in March to protest changes passed in Act 181 that were set to take effect this year. 

That push worked, but it remains to be seen how the new movement could have an impact at the ballot box. Since the end of the legislative session in June, Rural Vermont Rising has grown but also become more diffuse — rallying around specific land use and affordability issues in communities across Vermont.

The group does not fit neatly into partisan politics, though Republicans have been eager to align themselves with it, top among them Gov. Scott and Lt. Gov. Rodgers. 

Democrats have controlled a majority of seats in the Vermont House and Senate for years. They held a supermajority in both chambers after the 2022 election and used it to repeatedly override vetoes from Gov. Scott. Then, Republicans made historic gains in the 2024 election — dismantling those supermajorities and undoing some legislation Democrats had passed.

This year, of course, Democrats will be looking to win back the seats they lost. They have reasons to be confident: it’s a midterm election, and at least at the national level, the party in power tends to struggle in the midterms. President Donald Trump is digging in his heels on an unpopular trade fight with Vermont’s northern neighbor and biggest trading partner, Canada, while also continuing to wage an unpopular war against Iran.

Vermont Republicans are confident that voters will care more at the ballot box about local issues like increases in their property tax bills, their pointed messaging on which helped win them so many new state legislative seats two years ago, as did a boost from Gov. Scott’s coattails. Even if they pick up more seats this fall, though, winning majority control of either chamber would be a big lift.

Their best chance is in the Senate, where the party now holds 13 seats to Democrats’ and the Vermont Progressive Party’s 17-member caucus. GOP senators seem to know this: They held a press event on the Statehouse steps over the summer to outline the legislation they’d advance if they had control, including changes to tax and bail policies.

It’s not every year that Vermonters get to vote on changes to the state’s Constitution. This year, there are two up for consideration. 

The first would codify employees’ right to join a union and collectively bargain with their employers. It’s known as Proposal 3. Supporters say the amendment would prevent Vermont from passing laws in the future that prohibit employers and labor unions from making union membership a condition of employment, known as “right to work” laws. These laws are on the books in a majority of states.

The other measure, Proposal 4, would add a passage to the Constitution guaranteeing equal protection under the law for all people, regardless of their race, ethnicity, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, or nationality. 

If this one passes, Vermont would join a majority of other states in having a version of what’s known as an equal rights amendment. It’s something advocates have been pushing to add to the U.S. Constitution for more than a century.

We’ll be watching these races, and others, as Election Day approaches. Follow our ongoing coverage and check out VTDigger’s election guide, where you can look up the candidates on your ballot, find out how to vote by mail and explore the biggest races across Vermont.