Bitcoin on-chain data shows the Puell Multiple indicator has observed a decline recently. Here’s what this could imply for the network.

As highlighted by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in an X post, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has gone down recently. The “Puell Multiple” is a popular on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between the daily USD value of newly minted tokens and the 365-day moving average (MA) of the same.

Supply is “minted” on the blockchain when miners add a block and claim the corresponding block reward. This newly issued supply makes up for the majority of the BTC miner revenue, so the Puell Multiple is closely related to the income level of these chain validators.

When the value of the indicator is above 1, it means miners today are earning a higher amount of block subsidy revenue as compared to the average for the past year. On the other hand, the metric’s value being below the threshold suggests the validators are earning less than the norm.

Now, here is the chart shared by Adler Jr that shows the trend in the 30-day MA of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the past decade:

The value of the metric appears to have been heading down in recent months | Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple shot up to a high in mid-2025, but the metric has been going down. This suggests that miner income has been on the decline.

The reason behind the metric’s trajectory is simple: the cryptocurrency’s price itself has suffered a bearish shift during this period. The block subsidy involves a fixed BTC value and is distributed at a more or less equal rate over time. As such, the only real variable related to it is the USD price of the asset.

After the latest market drawdown, the Puell Multiple has dropped to a value of 0.74. This means that miners today are making less than 75% of their normal income level for the last 365 days.

Historically, Bitcoin has often tended to approach bottoms when miners have been under a particularly high degree of stress. The current value, however, is still not as low as that observed at the lows of the last two bear markets. As such, it’s possible that BTC might have to see a further drop before a bottom can form, if the same pattern from before will play out this time as well.

An interesting feature in the chart is that the Puell Multiple abruptly drops off on a few occasions despite the price moving flat or even rising. These points correspond to the Bitcoin Halving, a periodic event that happens about every four years and permanently slashes the block subsidy exactly in half, serving as the sole moment where the block subsidy doesn’t have a fixed value.

Bitcoin has been stuck in sideways movement recently as its price is still trading around $62,800.

The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

For updates and exclusive offers enter your email.

Keshav is a Physics graduate who has been employed as a writer with Bitcoinist since June 2021. He is passionate about writing and through the years, he has gained experience working in a variety of niches. Keshav holds an active interest in the cryptocurrency market, with on-chain analysis being an area he particularly likes to research and write about.