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The United States and Canada may possess enough rare earth mineral deposits to meet their own future demand, potentially reducing their reliance on Chinese imports, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Michigan. However, the researchers caution that building a competitive domestic supply chain would require significant government support and cross-border cooperation.

Rare earth elements, including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, are essential for manufacturing electric vehicles, wind turbines, advanced electronics, and military systems. These metals are particularly valuable because they enable the production of powerful permanent magnets used in high-performance electric motors.

China currently dominates the global rare earth market, producing roughly 70 percent of the world’s supply after decades of investment in mining, processing facilities, and supply networks. While the U.S. and Canada have significant deposits, importing these materials has remained cheaper than developing domestic mines.

The study found that, with the exception of California’s Mountain Pass mine, North American deposits are generally lower in quality than major operations in China and Australia. Even so, the researchers believe they are competitive enough to support a regional supply chain if governments provide targeted incentives and market conditions remain favorable.

Lead author Stephen Kesler, professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, said the goal is to develop a stable industry without encouraging unnecessary mining. He noted that oversupply could drive prices down and make domestic operations economically unsustainable.

The researchers concluded that the United States could largely meet its own demand for light rare earth elements, such as neodymium and praseodymium, while cooperation with Canada would be the most practical approach for securing heavier rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, which are used in high-temperature magnets.

The team also projects global demand for rare earth elements to grow from 91 kilotons in 2024 to 123 kilotons by 2030 and 150 kilotons by 2040. Future research will examine whether North America’s domestic resources can meet demand for key magnet materials through 2050 as electric vehicle production continues to accelerate.