Ontario Liberal leadership candidate Dylan Morando is one of four people seeking to lead the party. (Ontario Liberal Party)

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TORONTO – A new opinion poll by Liaison released Friday suggests 38 per cent of Ontarians would vote for the Liberals if an election were held today. That’s five points ahead of the governing Progressive Conservatives and 14 points ahead of the Official Opposition NDP.

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That’s just one poll, though, and Liaison has tended to rate the Liberals noticeably higher than other polling firms, including Angus Reid and Abacus. The latter’s most recent poll, conducted in mid-June, gave the Progressive Conservatives a nine-point lead.

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Taken as a whole, however, public polling shows the Progressive Conservatives losing ground since September and the Liberals closing the gap, even though the party has been without a leader since Bonnie Crombie resigned in January and holds just 14 seats at Queen’s Park.

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The next provincial election is not due until 2030 – a long time in politics. But if the trend holds, the next Liberal leader could become the government’s principal rival or even the next premier.

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Here’s a quick primer on the Liberal leadership race:

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It has already begun, with the nomination phase nearing its end.

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There are four candidates, and the deadline for new candidates to enter the race is July 31.

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Nominees must go through a vetting process before they can be approved by a party committee. With only a week left, it is probably safe to assume party members will be choosing from the four candidates already in the race.

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Once the candidate roster is finalized, the party will begin holding all-candidate debates, with the Ontario Young Liberals hosting one at Western University in early August and an agriculture-focused debate in Kemptville on Aug. 16.

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Anyone who wishes to vote for the next Liberal leader must become a party member by Sept. 7.

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Voting will take place online beginning Nov. 9, with party members ranking the candidates in order of preference. The results will be announced at an event on Nov. 21.

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Navdeep Bains is a former Toronto-area MP who served as the federal minister of innovation, science and industry from 2015 until 2021, when he chose not to seek re-election to spend more time with his family. Outside politics, he has worked as an executive at companies including Ford, Nike, CIBC and Rogers.

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Bains recently toured northern Ontario, where he spoke to the Sudbury Star and Timmins Daily Press about the need for “non-market” housing solutions to help address homelessness.

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“You need a government that’s actually part of the solution when it comes to housing,” he said.

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Navdeep Bains (Ontario Liberal Party)

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Lee Fairclough is the only candidate who already serves as an MPP at Queen’s Park.

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This is Fairclough’s first term representing Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and she serves as the Liberal critic for mental health. Before entering politics, she worked as a radiation therapist and hospital executive.