Climate change is projected to significantly increase the likelihood of performance-impairing heat during most scheduled matches of the men's 2026 World Cup.

The World Cup is set to commence on June 11 with an opening ceremony in Mexico City. Over the subsequent six weeks, 48 international teams will compete in 104 matches hosted across 16 cities in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

A Climate Central analysis indicates that 97 of the 104 matches will have an elevated chance of temperatures exceeding 28°C (82.4°F), which can negatively affect player performance.

Temperatures above 28°C can impact soccer players' physical output, affecting how fast, far, or frequently they run during a game. This can lead to difficulties for players in reaching their peak performance and may influence a team's overall match strategy and style of play. Teams that depend on speed and repeated sprinting could face a disadvantage under hotter conditions.

"While they may be elite, as it were, they're still people, and they still have to contend with those same conditions that we all do," Austin Krohn, the Public Information Specialist for the Columbia/Boone County Department of Public Health and Human Services, says even first-class athletes can face trouble in this heat.

Some players will be facing conditions hotter than at home, but acclimatisation is also a part of any athlete's training. "They're conditioned to working up that sweat, though I can't recommend that they push it either way," Austin says, "Again, taking those frequent breaks and staying hydrated is going to be paramount."

The Climate Central analysis used historical data to evaluate the probability of daily temperatures surpassing the 28°C threshold during the 104 World Cup matches. This assessment compared current conditions, influenced by carbon pollution, with a hypothetical world without such pollution to understand the specific impact of climate change on heat-related risks.

On average, warming caused by climate change boosts the odds of performance-impairing heat by about 8 percentage points across most of the scheduled games. At Kansas City Stadium, there is a 68% chance of temperatures exceeding 28°C on the afternoon of the match between Argentina and Algeria. Climate change has increased these odds by 13%.

Beyond performance concerns for athletes, extreme heat can also pose serious health risks to fans and staff, particularly when combined with high humidity. Another recent Climate Central analysis found that extremely hot June-July days are increasing at all but two of the 2026 World Cup stadiums.

For fans, Austin says the basics can do a lot to keep you cool: "loose-fitting clothing, staying hydrated. If you're at the stadium and the sun's too much, try to get inside somehow for a little bit. Maybe bring an umbrella, a sunscreen, that kind of thing," he says.

World Cup organizers are implementing measures to adapt to the rising heat risks. These include scheduling more evening matches in hotter host cities and mandating hydration breaks during all 104 matches. Only three stadiums, located in Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, are fully climate-controlled, leaving players and millions of fans in most venues exposed to peak summer heat.

To minimize the risks of heat stress, matches may be postponed if the wet-bulb globe temperature, a measurement of humid heat, reaches 32°C (89.6°F).