Fishing in Grindavik, SV Iceland/Shutterstock

Today, the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute presents an assessment of the state of commercial fish stocks and advisory recommendations for the upcoming fishing year. Catch quotas are proposed for 28 stocks on the basis of the long-term objectives of Icelandic authorities regarding sustainable utilization. The full advisory report can be accessed on the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute's website under Advice.

Marine and Freshwater Research Institute recommends a 1% reduction in the cod catch quota for the 2026/2027 fishing year. This advice follows the Icelandic government’s harvest control rule. The recommended total allowable catch decreases from 203822 tonnes in the current fishing year to 201674 tonnes. Increase in the recommended total allowable catch for cod is not expected for the next two to three years for two reasons. On one hand, the estimated size of the 2021 and 2022 year classes, which have now entered the cod reference stock (4 years and older), is below average. On the other hand, the year classes from 2019 to 2021 are slow-growing, which is believed to be linked to the poor condition of the capelin stock in recent years. Their expected contribution to the size of the reference stock is therefore smaller than that of earlier year classes of the same abundance.

Under the harvest control rule, the haddock quota will be 63206 tonnes, representing a 20% reduction in the advisory recommendation from the current fishing year. This reduction is because the size of the haddock reference stock (45 cm and bigger) has decreased since it reached its peak in 2024. The decrease follows poor recruitment in the years 2022-2024. The reference stock is therefore not expected to increase in the near term. There are indications that the 2025 year class is large.

The advisory recommendation for saithe under the harvest control rule decreases by 16% from the current fishing year and now stands at 49887 tonnes. The reduction in this year's advice is due to a downward revision in the estimated size of the saithe reference stock (4 years and older).

The advisory recommendation for golden redfish is 43319 tonnes, or 5% higher than in the current fishing year. This increase can be partly attributed to a higher stock index in autumn survey over the past three years compared with preceding years. The estimated size of golden redfish year classes from 2009 to 2016 is low, and as a result the spawning stock has declined since 2018. There are indications that recruitment has increased, but those year-classes are not expected to fully enter the fishable stock for several years yet.

The proposed catch quota for deep-sea redfish is 0 tonnes, as the spawning stock is assessed to be below precautionary limits. The stock is not expected to rise above precautionary limits in the foreseeable future.

The advisory recommendation for Greenland halibut is nearly unchanged from last year, at 21079 tonnes. An increase in stock size is anticipated over the coming years owing to improved recruitment.

The advisory recommendation on the catch quota for Icelandic summer-spawning herring for the coming fishing year decreases by 22% and stands at 80307 tonnes. As the contribution of the large 2017 to 2019 year classes to the reference stock has decreased since last year’s assessment, the estimated stock size this year has decreased. No major changes in stock size are expected in the coming year. There is uncertainty in the stock assessment due to biased sampling in the spring survey of 2025 and inconsistencies between the 2024 and 2025 indices.

The recommended initial catch quota for capelin in the coming winter season is, under the coastal states' harvest control rule, 358044 tonnes, which is an 81% increase from the final advisory for the last fishing year. The advice will be updated ahead of the next fishing season following the autumn survey.

The accompanying table provides an overview of the institute's advisory advice for 28 stocks in Icelandic waters for the 2026/2027 fishing year: