MOSCOW, July 29. /TASS/. The US is pushing for a settlement to the Ukrainian conflict, while Kiev shows no willingness to de-escalate tensions with Russia; Israel is trying to derail any peace efforts between the US and Iran; and Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza is potentially progressing. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

The US is discussing options for restarting peace talks on the conflict in Ukraine, but Kiev shows no willingness to de-escalate tensions with Russia.

On July 28, when former South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham (who was on Russia’s list of terrorists and extremists) was officially laid to rest, Vladimir Zelensky held talks with US President Donald Trump that he said focused specifically on a diplomatic settlement. In reality, however, Ukraine is expanding the scope of its terrorist attacks and lobbying for yet another round of anti-Russian sanctions. The US Senate has tentatively approved a bill that would allow for the imposition of 100% trade tariffs on Russian oil buyers. Meanwhile, a new corruption scandal involving the embezzlement of Western aid is unfolding in Ukraine.

The meeting between Zelensky and Trump comes amid an escalating conflict between Moscow and Kiev, as well as Ukraine’s attempts to project the image that everything is going well there, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. In his opinion, the US continues to compare approaches with Ukraine and other allies while declaring its intention to end the conflict. Koshkin noted that Moscow is unlikely to believe this rhetoric following media reports that US intelligence assisted Kiev in strikes against Russian regions: "Therefore, Putin may view the meeting between Zelensky and Trump with skepticism, given that virtually nothing remains of the agreements reached in Anchorage."

It is not yet clear exactly what "new ideas" Washington is offering. If they take into account the situation on the ground and the advance of Russian troops, Moscow will seriously consider these proposals, Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy Vice Rector Oleg Karpovich told Izvestia. However, Washington’s provision of intelligence and weapons to Kiev raises questions, as do the new sanctions against Russia currently being prepared.

"What Ukrainian terrorists are doing in the air, on the ground, and, most importantly, against civilians and children is completely at odds with Zelensky’s lofty rhetoric on diplomatic initiatives," Grigory Karasin, the head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, emphasized.

Despite Washington’s demands, Israel has not withdrawn its troops from Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. In an attempt to justify the presence of his troops, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hyping up the threat from Iran to US President Donald Trump. While in Washington for Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral, Netanyahu met with Trump to discuss next steps in the Middle East. According to media reports, Netanyahu has new intelligence regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities. Experts believe that new strikes are quite likely. At the very least, Trump has already threatened to bomb Pickaxe Mountain, where centrifuges are allegedly hidden.

The current meeting in Washington is one of Netanyahu’s last chances to persuade Trump to launch a full-scale operation against Iran, Middle East expert Farhad Ibragimov told Izvestia. Although their personal relationship has been somewhat strained, any US president understands that "Netanyahus come and go, but Israel remains" as the US’ only true ally in the Middle East, the expert emphasized.

American losses are not significant enough to stop Trump, and if he closes the Iranian "case" without achieving anything, it will virtually guarantee Republican defeat in the midterm elections, Middle East expert Alexander Kargin noted. "I think we’re heading toward a major war. Trump is already pulling troops into the Middle East and deploying bombers," the expert pointed out.

From a reputational standpoint, the US president is in a bind. In February, when announcing the start of the operation, Trump spoke of a "weak regime" that would not withstand the blow. Five months later, however, Iran’s missile forces are still operational, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the memorandum of understanding - which the US president described as a personal victory - has been violated by both sides. Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the region need a settlement, with their status as the "Switzerland of the Middle East" undermined, and the investment climate has taken a serious hit, Kargin stressed.

The radical Palestinian group Hamas has agreed to begin a process of disarmament under international supervision and separate its military wing from the civilian administration in the Gaza Strip, media reports say. These two issues remain the most contentious points in the peace plan proposed by the so-called Board of Peace for resolving the situation in the Palestinian enclave, as put forward by US President Donald Trump.

While this is a positive development, the issue of the future of Hamas’ armed wing and control over Gaza after the end of the war remains on the agenda, Nikolay Sukhov, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. "For Islamists, disarmament is a matter of the movement's existence as an independent political and military force. That is why I would not expect a rapid and voluntary dismantling of Hamas’ military capabilities. Even if the movement’s leadership is willing to discuss various forms of transferring control of the enclave, an international presence there, and the reconstruction of Gaza, the issue of disarmament will remain the most fundamental," the expert noted.

Despite the ongoing diplomatic process, the full implementation of Trump’s plan remains unlikely for now, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, emphasized. The disarmament of Hamas and the transition of Gaza to the control of forces other than Hamas remain murky. "Israel is not interested in maintaining long-term control over Gaza and is ready to begin the process of gradually transferring control of parts of the strip to international stabilization forces on a trial basis. But it refuses to withdraw beyond the ‘yellow line’ until the entire territory of the enclave has been demilitarized," the expert said.

Trump will likely continue to exert pressure on both Israel and Hamas in the peace process, Sukhov stressed. According to the expert, it is important for the US leader to demonstrate diplomatic successes to voters, especially as disagreements arise within his administration regarding how to resolve the Iranian issue.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will have to decide whether to hold a referendum on the country’s foreign policy. He is facing mounting pressure from the leaders of the four other countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which Armenia will have to leave if it joins the EU. Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the economic issues that have arisen between the two countries. They were unable to reach a breakthrough. However, things are not as bad for Armenia as they might seem at first glance.

"So far, there are no signs that Russia might lift the restrictions imposed in recent months. On the contrary, there is a trend toward increasing their number. Judging by statements coming out of the Kremlin, it seems Moscow wants to wait for the referendum results before making a decision on economic issues. No compromises are in sight," Sergey Melkonyan, a research fellow at the Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

According to the expert, the best thing Yerevan can do at this point is to keep relations with Russia from deteriorating further. Otherwise, the restrictions could affect financial transactions, migration policies, and other areas.

Russia is Armenia’s main trade and economic partner. According to Yerevan’s data, Armenia’s exports to Russia accounted for 36.3% of it's total trade balance in the first quarter of 2026, while exports to the EU stood at 14.1%.

Meanwhile, political analyst Grant Mikayelyan noted that Putin did not congratulate Pashinyan on the Civic Contract party's victory in the parliamentary elections during their phone conversation. According to the expert, this may indicate Moscow's displeasure with the anti-Russian tone of the ruling party’s election campaign. "Apparently, Moscow expects Yerevan to define its foreign policy course by December, but Pashinyan is unable to do so. His government is too dependent on the West; essentially, it has become a hostage," Mikayelyan stressed.

Analysts forecast that Russia’s oil and gas revenues will fall short of projected targets this year, amounting to about 8.2 trillion rubles (over 104.1 billion dollars). Commodity prices are being supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Urals crude oil is currently trading above $75 per barrel. Additional budget revenues could reach about 2.4 trillion rubles (nearly 30.5 billion dollars) if commodity prices remain high. However, the strong ruble and a decline in commodity export volumes partially offset the effect of high oil prices. Nevertheless, total revenues are growing compared to last year.

To reach government targets, the treasury needs to collect more than 5.2 trillion rubles (over 66 billion dollars) in the second half of the year, economist Olga Gogaladze said, pointing out that that would be a 43% increase over the first half of this year. For that to happen, several factors would have to converge, those being higher oil prices, a weaker ruble, and stable export volumes, Denis Astafiev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia.

The rise in oil prices due to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US directly impacts budget revenues. Every additional dollar in the average annual price brings the treasury about 150-160 billion rubles (about 1.9-2 billion dollars), Alexey Rodin, financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital, emphasized.

The shortfall in oil and gas revenues will directly widen the gap between the treasury’s revenues and expenditures, Gogaladze emphasized. Even now, despite the growth in budget revenues, expenditures remain high: about 24.5 trillion rubles (over 311.1 billion dollars). Thus, the deficit amounts to 2.5% of GDP, or 5.7 trillion rubles (72.3 billion dollars).

In this situation, the main way to offset the budget deficit will be domestic borrowing through the issuance of federal loan bonds, Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov stressed. In addition, the authorities may adjust their fiscal policy. Pontential measures include deferring expenditures, cutting funding for lower-priority programs, and increasing non-oil and gas revenues, the expert noted.

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