MOSCOW, August 24. /TASS/. The US vows to unleash "unprecedented" economic pressure on Iran; Ukrainians have "opened Pandora’s box" by striking Russian civilian infrastructure; and the US and Canada engage in a trade war. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

The US is preparing new sanctions against Iran, the details of which the Treasury will unveil on August 24. Meanwhile, Trump's announcement of "unprecedented" economic pressure does not exclude new military scenarios. Talks between Washington and Tehran remain at an impasse as the 60-day memorandum expired on August 17 and the two sides have yet to reach a final accord.

Moscow has traditionally advocated for the parties to resume dialogue. Moreover, it is ready to participate in mediation efforts if requested to do so, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. "If requested, Russia is ready to support mediation efforts to end the aggression against Iran and maintain stability in the Middle East. This includes the updated security concept for the Persian Gulf that we are promoting," the senior diplomat noted.

Moscow’s proposals on security in the Persian Gulf remain pertinent, Middle East expert Grigory Lukyanov recalled. They are based on the participation of all regional countries and the principle of indivisible security. However, the main problem is the absence of trust between the parties. Moreover, under Trump, the US is unwilling to recognize other states as legitimate mediators or guarantors of agreements.

Nevertheless, mediation by third countries remains in demand. Middle Eastern countries, as well as European and Asian energy importers, are particularly interested in stabilizing the situation as soon as possible. However, their ability to influence the US position is limited. According to Lukyanov, progress can only be achieved through confidential negotiations and by seeking compromises on specific issues.

However, the US and Iran have not abandoned negotiations, Lukyanov emphasized. However, both sides are confident in their strong positions and are unwilling to make concessions. At the same time, the protracted conflict creates problems for both Washington and Tehran. Iran needs external financial resources, while the US is facing the consequences of rising energy prices and problems with transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Moscow will no longer give in to the West’s empty promises: peace talks remain a separate track from the Russian army’s military operations. Vladimir Putin has clearly set out the conditions for discussing an end to the conflict. By striking civilian infrastructure, the Ukrainians have, as the Russian leader noted, "opened Pandora’s box" - and the response will be "severe." At the same time, Kiev’s peace "proposals" merely mimic peacemaking approaches, experts said.

"All of Kiev’s actions are aimed not at peace talks, but rather at escalating the conflict. That much is clear," former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov told Izvestia. According to Ukrainian lawmaker Spiridon Kilinkarov, Kiev has been trying to escalate tensions since spring. Ukraine continues to cling to a single scenario: freezing the fighting and rearming. Moscow, however, does not accept this option. Kilinkarov emphasized that substantive negotiations are unlikely to begin before mid-September unless Ukraine puts forward new proposals. He noted that a peaceful settlement by the end of the year is unlikely.

"There have been no diplomatic proposals from Kiev on a mutual cessation of attacks. Moscow is being asked only to unilaterally stop its strikes," Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, noted. According to the expert, Zelensky needs the escalation for domestic political stability. Therefore, there are no signs of progress toward resolving the conflict in the Kiev regime's actions.

The upcoming European elections are also hindering the negotiations. According to another Ukrainian lawmaker Vladimir Oleynik, Europe is far from monolithic in its backing of Kiev: Slovakia and Hungary do not directly support the conflict, while in Germany and France, the current governments are afraid to admit it is a losing battle, otherwise they would have to explain to voters where their taxes have gone. Therefore, in his opinion, European governments will "drag their feet until the very last moment," but as new election cycles approach, their support for Kiev will become increasingly unstable.

After failing to reach a trade deal with Ottawa, President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some of Canada’s exports to the US. These measures had been announced in late July but were delayed until August 19 in an attempt to resolve the issues through diplomacy. Ultimately, however, the negotiations failed. Canada is preparing retaliatory measures that will take effect on September 8.

The US tariffs will apply to Canadian alcohol, dairy products, various types of paper, hockey equipment, cement, honey, seaweed, seeds, and automobiles. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the new tariffs will affect Canadian goods totaling $20 billion by the end of July, nearly 5% of Canada’s total exports to the US. Meanwhile, according to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, US tariffs will affect goods totaling $28 billion.

Despite their limited scope, the tariffs will affect both American consumers and Canadian exporters, Vladimir Pavlov, a senior research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told Vedomosti. The expert emphasized, however, that Canada has plans in place to shift its exports toward Asia and Europe. "The main problem here is simply that it will take time to implement these plans," Pavlov said. He also noted that the Trump administration should expect lawsuits and protests.

For Trump, the political logic behind continuing the trade war with Canada lies in maintaining his position at a time when the Canadian economy is not only withstanding the test of endurance under tariff pressure, but is also effectively retaliating, thereby harming the US economy, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said. "For the US president, backing down would mean admitting he was wrong and appearing weak, which he cannot afford amid the congressional election race and fluctuations in his approval ratings," the expert pointed out. According to Koshkin, tariffs are a tool that Trump has no intention of abandoning, as he considers them his primary means of exerting pressure across nearly all areas of foreign policy.

Russian oil exports from the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea fell by half in the first half of August, from the usual 0.8-1 million barrels per day to 0.4 million barrels. The reason for this decline is the heightened risk to shipping due to drone attacks on tankers and port infrastructure, traders noted.

The situation around Russian oil exports via the Black Sea is not a localized disruption but rather systemic pressure on one of the key supply channels, NEFT Research External Communications Director Dmitry Prokofiyev told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Novorossiysk, through which Russian Urals and Siberian Light crude, as well as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO, pass, has found itself at the epicenter of a logistical crisis. The expert emphasized that not a single shipment of crude was loaded at the port during the third week of August.

The port in Novorossiysk was adapted for loading oil onto tankers in the 1960s. At one time, most of the Soviet Union’s oil exports passed through it. However, in the 21st century, Russian shipments have largely moved to the Baltic Sea (the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga). Initially, European countries were the main buyers of Russian oil and petroleum products. However, after the EU embargo on Russian oil imports in 2022, the situation changed. Russia began shipping oil to Asia, yet the distribution of shipment volumes across export ports stayed unchanged. Loading volumes at the Baltic ports remained high.

That is precisely why it is impossible to redirect all Black Sea oil exports to the Baltic route. Terminal capacity is limited, Maxim Malkov, a Kept partner and head of the firm’s oil and gas practice, emphasized. However, the expert noted that there is significant flexibility between these routes. According to Prokofiyev, about 100,000 barrels per day can be rerouted, and this is already taking place.

The expert also emphasized that the paradox is that shipments from Novorossiysk to China and India have now become more expensive than those from the Baltic, despite the drop in volumes. In mid-August, transporting oil from the Baltic to northern China cost $17.6 per barrel, while shipping from Novorossiysk cost $24.7. This premium is for security, not distance. Shipping costs to western India from Novorossiysk increased by 43.5%, and to northern China by 22.7%. The reason is higher insurance and operational risks. If these risks disappear, shipments from Novorossiysk will be significantly cheaper than those from the Baltic.

Central bank demand for gold in the second quarter of 2026 increased by 62% compared to the same period last year. According to experts, interest in gold bars among regulators and investors is growing while demand for jewelry is falling.

"There are several reasons for the growth in central banks’ demand for gold. The first is ongoing geopolitical tensions. The second is risks associated with the US dollar and the US economy. The third is reserve diversification, which involves reducing the share of fiat currencies and other types of assets in favor of the traditional 'safe haven,' including physical gold bars," cryptocurrency, compliance and sanctions risks expert Viktor Pershikov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

Professor Konstantin Pozdnyakov, an advisor to the Russian State Social University rector, also linked regulators’ growing interest in gold to the geopolitical situation. According to him, the freezing of certain countries’ reserves has made it clear to many central banks that the dollar and the euro are not completely reliable assets, despite their convenience. "Gold, on the other hand, cannot be frozen by sanctions, and that is precisely why demand for it is rising along with the level of global turmoil," the expert added.

Meanwhile, the high price of gold is weighing on the jewelry market. Demand for jewelry has fallen to 278 tons, the lowest level since the pandemic began. Manufacturers must account for the rising cost of the metal but cannot raise prices too much without losing customers, Pozdnyakov pointed out.

According to Pershikov, the Russian market is seeing two trends simultaneously in this situation. On the one hand, private investors continue to show growing interest in gold. In the second quarter, demand for gold bars and investment coins rose by 10% year-over-year. On the other hand, during the same period, the Bank of Russia reduced its gold reserves by approximately 22 tons, making it the largest seller of gold among central banks worldwide. "I wouldn’t interpret this as a decline in confidence in gold, since in Russia’s case, the sales are largely related to reserve rebalancing, liquidity, and budgetary operations," the expert stressed.

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