Until recently, it seemed that a split within the main, long-established opposition party (founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the architect of modern Türkiye) would play into the hands of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Following a court ruling that removed Ozgur Ozel as the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), his supporters broke away to form the Yeni Parti (New Party). The opposition suddenly found itself with two headquarters, two leaders, and a dispute over who rightfully owns its political legacy. However, September polls showed that a significant number of voters had followed Ozel. Yeni Parti took second place in surveys conducted by ASAL and GENAR. While it still has a long way to go to catch up with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti), the new movement can no longer be dismissed.

According to ASAL, if parliamentary elections were held, 33.8% of respondents would support AK Parti, while 23.6% would back Yeni Parti; that’s a gap of 10.2 percentage points. GENAR put support for the ruling party at 36.1% and Ozel’s party at 21.6%, recording a difference of 14.5 points. In both instances, AK Parti retained the top spot. Yet, for a political force established only in late July, the result is remarkable – especially considering that the CHP, under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, garnered only about 6% in the same polls. The leadership of the party changed due to the court ruling, but judging by the surveys, the party failed to retain the bulk of its voter base.

To understand the origins of Yeni Parti, one must look back at the events of this spring. In May, a court annulled the results of the 2023 CHP congress – where Ozel had been elected chairman – and reinstated his predecessor, Kilicdaroglu. Ozel’s supporters viewed the ruling as interference in the affairs of the opposition. Turkish authorities deny allegations of pressuring the court and insist on the judiciary’s independence. The confrontation lasted several weeks until Ozel and 90 opposition MPs left the CHP. On July 24, they announced the formation of a new party. It immediately secured 91 parliamentary seats, becoming the largest opposition faction.

This demonstrates the unique nature of the current crisis. Yeni Parti emerged from a split within the opposition, yet it did not have to start from scratch. Ozel was supported by MPs, prominent politicians, and a portion of the organizational network that had worked for the CHP. He also retained the experience gained from the campaigns that delivered the opposition’s victory in the 2024 local elections. The new party allows the team to stay together and continue the fight, even though legal and political ties to the former party have been severed. For voters who supported Ozel prior to the court ruling, the shift to Yeni Parti appears logical. 

At the same time, the September poll results also point to the party’s growth limitations. Erdogan’s AK Party maintains the lead in both polls, with a margin exceeding 14 points in the GENAR survey. It is too early for Erdogan’s supporters to speak of defeat, or for his opponents to anticipate an imminent change of power. However, the Turkish leader now faces a less favorable situation than might have emerged immediately after the CHP split. Erdogan’s main opponent did not just disappear along with his former party post, contrary to the predictions of many domestic experts. Ozel managed to shift the confrontation to a new arena and to quickly reclaim the role of parliamentary opposition leader.

The party’s future will depend on whether it can reach beyond the CHP’s traditional base of supporters. For now, the September figures can be interpreted either as a success for Ozel or as a redistribution of votes within the opposition. For example, a July study by GENAR put support for the CHP at 15.4% and for the then-nascent Yeni Parti at 14.5%. By September, the balance had shifted: Ozel’s party polled at 21.6%, while the CHP stood at 6.6%. These figures indicate voter migration between the two political forces. However, further polls and, ultimately, elections are necessary to confirm a sustained expansion of the opposition’s overall electoral base. 

There is another issue that party ratings alone cannot resolve: Who will challenge Erdogan in the 2028 presidential election? Following the creation of Yeni Parti, Ozel reaffirmed his support for Ekrem Imamoglu – the mayor of Istanbul and a politician popular among Turkish youth – who is currently under arrest and facing legal proceedings. While Imamoglu remains a pivotal figure for opposition voters, his potential candidacy is complicated by a court case and the invalidation of his university degree, a requirement for presidential candidates. Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas is also mentioned as a potential contender. While Yeni Parti boasts a prominent leader and a parliamentary faction, it is unclear who will be the opposition’s presidential candidate. And in a presidential campaign, this choice could prove far more significant than monthly fluctuations in party ratings.

Another challenge is that the Turkish opposition extends beyond Ozel’s party. Kilicdaroglu’s CHP party remains in parliament, while the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, the nationalist IYI Party led by Meral Aksener, and other forces also have their supporters. While all of them may oppose the incumbent president, they have different supporters and differing visions for the country’s future. Parliamentary elections allow each party to vie for its share of the vote; winning the presidency, however, requires an agreement capable of persuading the supporters of several parties to back a single candidate. The opposition already encountered this problem in 2023 – and ultimately suffered defeat.

Despite certain public fatigue regarding his long tenure, Erdogan retains significant political advantages. The ruling AK Party remains the leading party in the two abovementioned polls. Together with its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, or Grey Wolves), it commands a stable electoral base, and the president continues to set the agenda for national politics. It is too early to say that Erdogan is in serious trouble, as the AK Party retains the top position in both surveys. However, Ozel has managed to retain a significant portion of the opposition electorate following the split within the CHP. If Ozel manages to attract voters who did not previously support the CHP, Erdogan will face a formidable rival.

The economic situation adds further tension to the situation. In September, the Turkish market faced a crisis involving investment funds and a sharp drop in asset prices. Against this backdrop, Zeynel Emre, a representative of Yeni Parti, leveled accusations regarding stock market transactions against AK Party Deputy Chairperson Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya and her husband. Kaya requested to be relieved of her party duties pending the investigation. While the allegations still require verification, the political impact is already evident: The new party is striving to position itself not only as a defender of its own rights following the split within the CHP but also as a force capable of posing uncomfortable questions to the authorities.

Yeni Parti has also encountered another problem: a dispute over its name. Another political organization, the Yenilik Partisi (Innovation Party), declared that the Yeni Parti name is too similar to its own and appealed to the prosecutor’s office. The matter eventually reached the Constitutional Court. On September 29, the court granted Yeni Parti 30 days to prepare its objections. No final decision regarding the name has been reached yet.

Looking ahead, Turkish politics faces another pressing issue: the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2028. The question of whether Erdogan can participate in the presidential race hinges on the timing of the election and constitutional regulations. An early vote called by parliament would allow him to run for another term, but such a decision requires a majority of 360 out of 600 deputies. The ruling bloc lacks the votes to resolve this matter unilaterally. Consequently, the outcome will depend not only on voter sentiment but also on negotiations between parties – including those currently on opposite sides of the political divide. 

The latest surveys only show that following a painful rift within the opposition, Ozel has retained significant support. They do not reveal whether the Yeni Parti can catch up with the ruling AK Parti, find a presidential candidate acceptable to other forces, or bring about a change of power. For Erdogan, this means that he will have to monitor his new rival more closely. And for Ozel, it marks the beginning of a new phase in which he will have to transform his rapidly gained popularity into lasting political influence. Put together, these factors will determine the outcome of their standoff.