As holiday celebrations were getting underway last week, we received updates on new automotive sales, jobs and unemployment, consumer confidence, and home prices—all included below in this Auto Market Weekly Summary. Gas prices continue to decline, but now at a lower rate, with prices holding near $3.85 nationwide. We should see lower inflation in the coming months, but higher expenses have driven stagnant real disposable income growth at a time when consumers need it.

New-vehicle sales delivered the strongest growth of the year, with the June seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales reaching 16.5 million—up 4.4% year over year—as fleet demand and a resilient wealth effect continue to support showroom traffic. Hybrid sales stood out in June, now accounting for roughly 18% of new vehicle sales, up 3.5 points year over year.

Automotive strength stands in contrast to a softer macro backdrop. June payroll rose just 57,000, about half of expectations, with prior-month revisions erasing another 74,000 jobs. Consumer confidence ticked higher on paper, but the details were less encouraging: The share of consumers calling jobs hard to get jumped to its highest level since early 2021. Home prices, meanwhile, continue to trail inflation for an eleventh straight month, with roughly half of all metros still posting year-over-year declines.

Heading into the back half of the year, consumer demand for vehicles, and particularly hybrids, remains resilient. Whether that resilience holds through Q3 will depend on how much slack remains in household finances in a bifurcated market. Equity market gains are seemingly driving stronger spending on big-ticket items, but those gains are concentrated at the top. The vast majority of citizens are feeling pinched as expenses continue to outpace income growth. And everyone needs some relief in the sweltering summer heat.

New-vehicle sales showed the strongest growth rates since late last summer, and growth outpaced our expectations for June. The strong wealth effect appears to continue to drive new vehicle purchases, with hybrid sales rising even as days’ supply remains tight for the segment.

• June SAAR finished at 16.5 million, higher by 4.4% from last year’s pace and 0.4 million units above the prior month.
• The year-to-date SAAR level is now 15.9 million, lower against the same time last year but rising in recent months.
• Sales volume for June was 1.36 million units, a gain of 7.2% year over year but down 6.9% against the prior month.
• June had 25 selling days, one more than June 2025 but down one day against last month.
• Fleet sales rose 10% year over year according to estimates from Bobit, the strongest gain seen in the last few months, driven by growth of 12% in rental fleets. Commercial and Government fleet sales were also higher year over year.
• Year to date, fleet sales are up 4.4%, led by an 8% gain in the commercial fleet segment.

Job growth in June was positive, but only about half as many new jobs were created as expected during the month. Further, revisions to reports from both April and May reduced the overall jobs added to the economy by 74,000. On a stronger note, the unemployment rate declined in June and remains low.

• Nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 in June, only about half the 113,000-gain expected. The gains were led by education and health services, adding 69,000 jobs overall, with the professional and business services segment also rising.
• Offsetting the results, jobs in leisure and hospitality declined by 61,000, a segment that rose last month. Over both May and June, roles in leisure and hospitality are down 21,000, a contrast to expectations aligned to the World Cup.
• Prior-month revisions lowered overall job growth by 74,000 jobs as both April and May were revised lower. The three-month rolling average of jobs created has fallen to 111,000, as job growth remains choppy and negative revisions impact the overall rate of growth.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, after showing no change since March. The unemployment rate is higher by 10 basis points year over year. 
• The labor force participation rate fell by 0.3%, down to 61.5%. This is the lowest level in 50 years, outside of the pandemic era, as the wealth effect from the stock market collides with a large number of the population retiring.
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month, now higher by 3.5% year over year and below recent inflation trends.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly in June, but the details tell a more cautious story as labor market perceptions deteriorated notably.

• The headline index rose to 91.2 in June from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May, still below the index’s historical average and short of the 94.6 consensus estimate.
• The labor market differential, the share of consumers calling jobs plentiful minus those saying jobs are hard to get, fell to 2.4 from 5 in May, as the share saying jobs are hard to get jumped to 22.5%, a level not seen since early 2021.
• The Expectations Index rose to 74.4 on improved views of business conditions and income, but remained below 80, a threshold that has historically signaled elevated recession risk.
• Inflation expectations eased slightly to 6% from 6.2%. Expectations remain well above pre-pandemic norms.
• Consumers reported slightly stronger auto buying plans in June, particularly for used vehicles, even as broader sentiment around the labor market continued to soften.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index in April rose 0.8% year over year, a marginal pickup from a rise of 0.7% seen in March. The index remains exceptionally weak by historical standards. The 20-City Composite rose 1.1%, a slight improvement from the previous month (0.9% year over year).  

• The housing slowdown remains broad, with roughly half of the metros still posting annual price declines.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation continues to outrun home prices, and this is the 11^th month in a row where home price appreciation has not kept up with the growth in inflation.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis, which removes spring buying season, the National Index fell 0.1% month over month, marking a second straight monthly decline.
• Chicago again holds the top spot for price appreciation over the last year, with values up 6.5%, followed by New York (+3.8%) and Cleveland (+3.2%). 
• On the weaker side, Seattle shows the most depreciation against last year, with values down 2.3%, followed by Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Phoenix (-1.7%), and Dallas (-1.6%).