'Canada has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to become a global energy superpower,' prime minister said

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision Thursday to designate the proposed $44-billion West Coast oil pipeline, now called Pacific Link, a project of national interest could lead to new oilsands investment much sooner than previously thought, economists and industry executives say.

Curtis White, a vice president at Calgary-based International Petroleum Corp., said companies considering new projects four years from now could green-light them in 2028, bringing meaningful volumes of oil into the system two years ahead of schedule.

His company’s own greenfield project could reach 80,000 barrels a day by 2035 rather than 2040.

As a project of national interest, the government-backed pipeline is now on an accelerated regulatory track moving it closer to construction.

Corey Hogan, parliamentary secretary to the minister of energy and natural resources, said in an interview Canada’s long reliance on a single buyer has left the country exposed.

“Ninety per cent of the oil we produce ships to one customer,” he said. “That’s an unreasonable amount of concentration.”

Hogan said the timing is right to change that, as many of Canada’s Asian trading partners are looking to diversify their own energy supplies after years of depending on the Middle East and Russia.

The Calgary-headquartered Major Projects Office, backed by the Canada Energy Regulator, will begin a compressed 12-month federal review and stakeholder consultation process to finalize the project’s regulatory conditions.

The review’s deadline is set for Sept. 1, 2027. Discussions will focus on the pipeline’s ownership structure, environmental protections, respect for Indigenous rights, local hiring, and oversight.

Pacific Link would carry up to one million barrels of crude a day from Alberta to the B.C. coast for export. For context, that’s more than the expanded Trans Mountain line’s 890,000 barrels a day.

“Opening up this route is welcomed by an industry that has been hamstrung by lack of egress for too long,” said White.

He added that if Pacific Link goes ahead, and if Calgary-based South Bow Corp. green-lights its proposed Prairie Connector line to move more crude into the United States, “that’s a lot more runway that we’ve not had.”

Carney said the project would create 140,000 jobs across the country, $20-billion in gross domestic product per year, and $100-billion in government revenue by 2060.

“Mega projects support jobs across the country,” said Raj Singh, chief executive of Calgary-based Fuelled Inc. “We run a global energy equipment marketplace, and we can see the immediate uptick for manufacturers and service providers in regions when these jobs kick off.”

Carney added the project’s construction materials will favour Canadian steel and rely on Canadian workers trained through Canadian unions.

“Ottawa intends to build it jointly with Alberta, British Columbia and the other provinces and territories in a spirit of cooperative federalism,” Carney said.

Indigenous communities are being offered a minimum of 10 per cent ownership interest, financed through Canada and Alberta’s Indigenous loan guarantee programs.

Ottawa recently doubled its Indigenous loan guarantee program to $10 billion, and the Canada Infrastructure Bank has earmarked at least $3 billion for revenue-generating Indigenous infrastructure.

Provincially, the $3-billion Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corp. guarantees the debt communities use to buy in.

Chief Raymond Powder of Fort McKay First Nation, which is located in Alberta’s oilsands region, said he first heard about the potential for communities to buy a 10 per cent stake when he met with Carney and other Indigenous leaders. He didn’t say if the potential stake is enough, but noted his community would need to review the details.

Fort McKay First Nation has long favoured what it calls responsible resource development and is working to develop its own oilsands project. Still, Powder said he remains concerned about the impact that oil and gas development has had on the region.

“When you look at the … cumulative impact effects within the area here, we need to continue to address that,” he said. “We also need to have some piece of legislation with respect to accommodating those concerns.”

Analysts say the federal decision to fast-track reviews for Pacific Link will encourage more investment toward Canada’s energy sector.

Already this year, capital raised by domestic oil and gas producers jumped 28 per cent to $3.1 billion, up from $2.4 billion a year earlier.

“Fast-tracking Pacific Link is yet another positive tail wind,” said Tom Pavic, president of Sayer Energy Advisors. “And it’s going to definitely lead to more investor interest.”

For producers, the line’s main appeal is market diversification.

“West coast space is incredibly valuable today due to the instability of the U.S. trade relationship and the heavy crude competition from Venezuela in the Gulf Coast,” said White.

“If the cost to subscribe to Pacific Link is comparable, industry will go west to have access to the global market before they go south as evidenced by the recent Trans Mountain open season that was almost six times oversubscribed.”

Canadian heavy crude has long sold at a steep discount to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate, because roughly 90 per cent of Canada’s oil exports go to the United States.

“Before the Trans Mountain expansion, essentially no oil was going to overseas markets. [Trans Mountain] was a game changer, and it was well timed,” said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial’s chief economist.

Pipeline bottlenecks, meanwhile, periodically left Canada’s oil producers captive to American refiners.

The pipeline will allow producers to fetch better prices abroad, “which gives companies more cash that can be reinvested,” said Singh. “That’s good for everyone.”

With the designation, the pipeline joins a roster of fast-tracked natural gas, mining and transmission projects meant to boost the economy and reduce Canada’s reliance on the U.S. as a trading partner.

It falls under the Building Canada Act, which the Liberals passed last year as one of Carney’s first legislative priorities.

Under the act, designated projects are to “be advanced through an accelerated process that enhances regulatory certainty and investor confidence.”

“It’s hard to think of another project the Carney government could approve that would provide this kind of economic jolt,” said Parsons.

For the past decade, Canada’s oil industry has largely stayed in maintenance mode, prioritizing shareholder returns and squeezing more out of existing operations instead of pursuing new growth.

“New pipeline capacity changes that calculation,” Parsons said. “It clears the way for oilsands producers to invest in expansions and new greenfield projects.”

With the majority of Canada’s crude exports sold to the United States, Parsons said energy is a natural starting point for Carney’s push to double exports to other markets.

He added that boosting capital investment is tough in the current climate. “With the trade war weighing on the economy and manufacturers under strain, this has left Carney hunting for growth wherever he can find it.”

Ottawa and Alberta have agreed to split most of the investment, and Pembina Pipeline Corp. is the only private-sector participant, having signed a non-binding agreement to take a 10 per cent stake.

Once the pipeline is in commercial operation, Pembina holds the option to double its stake.

Alberta lobbied hard for the designation. Premier Danielle Smith argued the line would cut Canada’s dependence on the U.S. market and give Alberta crude access to higher international prices.

“Today marks a significant victory for Alberta’s and Canada’s energy future,” said Smith. “The listing of Pacific Link as a project of national interest demonstrates what can be achieved when governments work together to advance nation-building infrastructure.”

Pacific Link would add one million barrels a day to Canada’s crude exports, which averaged close to five million barrels a day in 2025. The new capacity would substantially expand Canada’s reach into overseas markets.

To Parsons, the oilsands are the only source capable of growth on the scale needed to fill a line as big as Pacific Link.

The proposed route largely follows the footprint of the federally owned Trans Mountain pipeline, running from Bruderheim, northeast of Edmonton, to the Roberts Bank export terminal south of Vancouver.

Using an existing corridor proved the most politically viable option, as the British Columbia government has refused to allow an oil pipeline to terminate on the province’s north coast.

As premier, David Eby said his government would not stand in the way of a southern route.

The decision followed an infrastructure agreement Carney struck with the province this summer, which includes an expansion of the Roberts Bank port corridor.

The port expansion is backed by a $10-billion federal commitment. B.C. also secured an agreement that the new oil pipeline will not terminate on the north coast.

The last major proposal for a northern route, Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway, was rejected by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government a decade ago.

The B.C. Conservatives said leader Lorne Doerkson supports the pipeline and getting Canadian resources to market.

“A pipeline to Roberts Bank means jobs and investment for both our province and the country, and the revenue to pay for hospitals and services British Columbians count on,” campaign officials said in a statement.

The proposed project faces significant opposition from environmental groups, which focus on four key concerns: climate emissions, marine risk at Roberts Bank, taxpayer exposure and a fast-tracked process that sidesteps environmental law.

Chris Severson-Baker, executive director of the Pembina Institute, said in May that the decision means oilsands emissions, “will continue to rise year over year for at least another 15 years.”

Julia Levin, associate director of national climate at Environmental Defence, has said the government is moving at “breakneck speed” and avoiding “due oversight.”

With files from Graison Foster, Financial Post