In 2025, for the fourth consecutive year, the installed capacity of domestic solar power plants increased by more than 1 gigawatt (GW), approaching 8.3 GW at the beginning of December. This means that photovoltaic systems now account for more than half of Hungary's total electricity generation capacity in terms of installed capacity. However, due to their lower utilization rate compared to traditional technologies, they account for "only" approximately 30% of the electricity generated domestically, which still puts the country among the world leaders after its 2024 primacy.

However, this global leading position is somewhat overshadowed by the fact that, in terms of total (cumulative) solar panel capacity per capita, Hungary ranked only 8th in the European Union in 2025 , behind several countries with weaker solar energy production conditions, which highlights that

the total installed capacity of Hungary's power plant fleet, including other power generation technologies, is relatively low.

As things stand, we could slip even further down the list to 11th place by 2030.

The slowdown predicted by SolarPower Europe should be interpreted in this context, and based on this, the average annual growth in solar capacity in Hungary by the end of the decade is still expected to be around 1 GW, with significant variations in certain years.

The organization's forecast unusually specifies solar panel (DC) output, and the value given in direct current is 1.2-1.3 times higher than the otherwise widely used output values based on the amount of energy converted into alternating current by the inverter and fed into the grid. The multiplier depends on the type of solar panel segment: for small household power plants, the multiplier is 1.2; for corporate solar power plants producing for their own use, it is 1.25; and for utility-scale solar parks producing specifically for the grid, it is 1.3.

The forecast only includes the following annual (DC) figures for total installed photovoltaic capacity, without segmentation, which is divided by a weighted value of 1.275 to obtain the usual AC values, as large solar parks are expected to dominate new installations until 2030.

Based on this, according to the forecast in the SolarPower Europe report, which is based on the prognosis of the Hungarian MANAP solar industry association, domestic solar capacity is expected to reach

• approximately 9.8 GW (DC: 12.5 GW) by the end of this year,
• to 11.1 GW (DC: 14.2 GW) in 2027,
• to 12 GW (DC: 15.3 GW) in 2028,
• to 13.2 GW (DC: 16.8 GW) in 2029, and
• to approximately 13.3 GW (DC: 17 GW).

The 12 GW target for 2030 set out in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) revised in 2023 could therefore be achieved in 2028.

According to the analysis, three main factors are causing the decline in growth rates:

regulatory challenges in the residential segment, network constraints in utility-scale projects, and the stabilization of EU market electricity prices.

According to the report, the government's attitude towards photovoltaic systems has shifted from active support to a moderately positive position. This may be due in part to the fact that the remarkable global expansion of solar panels has caused significant network challenges, the management of which and the implementation of upgrades are becoming increasingly important.

In this context, a regulatory framework for co-location installations is being developed, with the aim of enabling the installation of energy storage facilities behind existing power generation units at the same grid connection point. This supports increased grid flexibility while also enhancing the stability and profitability of existing business models, according to the report, which notes that Hungary is taking significant steps in the field of energy storage to address the challenges posed by the fluctuating nature of solar power generation. The installed capacity of domestic battery energy storage systems was 160.9 MW at the beginning of December, and the government's increased target is to reach 3 GW by 2030.

Among the market challenges mentioned in the report is the fact that, as of January 2025, the inflation-linked pricing system for KÁT feed-in tariffs has been abolished, which has had a negative impact on the profitability of utility-scale investments, as well as the extra tax burdens imposed on energy producers (Robin Hood tax). In addition, investment appetite in the Hungarian solar energy sector is also reduced by the fact that the state has a right of first refusal if a solar park is offered for sale to foreign investors.

These factors also contribute to the expected slowdown, but according to the report, the sector can remain successful in the coming years, with the key lying in

the development of network infrastructure, the expansion of energy storage capacities, and the creation of regulatory stability.

The slowdown in solar capacity growth is not unique to Hungary; similar trends can be observed throughout the European Union. The report points out that the solar power boom seen in the EU in the 2020s has essentially come to an end, with newly installed photovoltaic capacity declining for the first time since 2016 in 2025, falling by 0.7% to 65.1 GW.

Although the EU has still achieved its cumulative capacity target of 400 GW for 2025 (406 GW), reaching the 750 GW target for 2030 no longer seems likely, as the medium scenario predicts that annual growth will remain below the 2025 level until the end of the decade.

In order for the EU to achieve its solar energy targets, policymakers need to redefine energy security in terms of renewable-based electrification, adopt a comprehensive energy system flexibility strategy, implement licensing procedures, and boost the market for rooftop solar systems, the report says.

The authors of the section of the report on Hungary are Ádám Szolnoki, president of MANAP, and László Gaál, secretary general of the Hungarian Renewable Energy Association (MMESZ).

Cover photo (for illustration purposes only): Shutterstock